As a seasoned cryptocurrency researcher with over a decade of experience in this ever-evolving digital economy, I find myself constantly intrigued by the dynamics that govern the crypto market. The recent analysis from Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, resonates deeply with my own observations and predictions.
According to a cryptocurrency expert’s analysis, altcoins are likely to experience continuous fluctuations between strong surges and declines, until the price of Bitcoin exceeds the $100,000 threshold.
At the Aus Crypto Con 2024, Swyftx’s lead analyst, Pav Hundal, mentioned that they are eagerly anticipating a significant action before they examine a shift in capital investments.
Altcoins will ‘remain choppy’
According to Hundal’s perspective, there are some cryptocurrencies performing exceptionally well compared to Bitcoin (BTC), such as certain meme coins. However, he predicts that most altcoins will continue to have volatile price movements until Bitcoin surpasses the $100,000 mark. On November 23rd, Bitcoin came very close to reaching $100,000, peaking at $99,605. At the time of this writing, its value has slightly dropped to $96,476.
Hundal stated that while there could be potential increases of up to 40%, the majority of those gains may be reversed the following day.
On November 21st, Solana (SOL) experienced a 12.98% increase over a 24-hour period. However, it lost almost 13% of its value over the next five days.
It’s common to see a similar trend even with major memecoins based on market cap. For instance, on November 15th, Pepe (PEPE) experienced an approximately 93.15% surge within a day after listing announcements from Coinbase and Robinhood. However, the following day, it saw a nearly 22% decline in value as per CoinMarketCap data.
When queried if PEPE might be capable of achieving “800% daily gains” similar to those observed during the previous cycle with Dogecoin (DOGE), Hundal responded by stating that while he wouldn’t entirely rule it out, it’s important to remember that with larger market caps, significant capital inflow is required.
“These sorts of things become more possible when Bitcoin dominance is coming back to the downside.”
Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market.
Bitcoin dominance is key
According to Hundal’s perspective, the influence of Bitcoin could potentially extend up to 65-67%, or even as high as 70%, before it begins to decrease.
In simpler terms, Hundal stated that he’s not focusing on predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin’s dominance as a signal for when the altcoin market will begin to decline.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin dominance is 58.30%, according to TradingView data.
As a fellow crypto enthusiast, I’m sharing my perspective based on the insights of pseudonymous trader Mikybull Crypto: “I believe we might witness significant drops in Bitcoin‘s dominance within the upcoming month.
As an analyst, I’d like to share some insights from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He cautions his 374,200 followers, including myself, that the upcoming altcoin season may not resemble those of past cycles as we might expect.
Ju explained that it’s primarily institutional investors fueling the surge in Bitcoin prices, as they tend to favor the less volatile and more established cryptocurrency over the riskier, speculative tokens.
As an analyst, I find a notable difference between the strategies of crypto exchange users and institutional investors/ETF buyers regarding asset allocation. Unlike the former group, who might be inclined to shift their investments from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), the latter appears to maintain a stable focus on Bitcoin.
In order for altcoins to set a record-breaking market value, they need a substantial increase in new investments flowing into cryptocurrency platforms. When the total market capitalization of altcoins is less than its all-time high, it suggests that there’s been a decrease in fresh funds coming from new exchange users,” he explained.
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2024-11-29 06:39