Price analysis 12/16: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, DOGE, ADA, AVAX

As a seasoned crypto enthusiast who has navigated through the ups and downs of the digital currency world for years now, I must say that the current state of these assets is quite intriguing. The BTC and altcoin market seems to be in a phase of consolidation, with some coins showing promising signs of growth while others are struggling to maintain their footing.

On December 16, Bitcoin (BTC) persisted in its upward trend, indicating persistent interest from bullish investors. As mentioned by Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, Bitcoin has a tendency to make significant moves around or near December 17. He anticipates that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could further escalate Bitcoin’s prices. However, he plans to stay cautious and observe for more clarification before taking action.

According to ZK Square’s Chief Investment Officer, CK Zheng, Bitcoin might be in what’s known as “Santa Claus mode,” where investors are eagerly allocating funds due to the fear of missing out on the surge. He predicts that by early 2025, Bitcoin could hit $125,000, but he also foresees a potential 30% drop following this increase.

Despite potential adjustments, MicroStrategy recently bought another 15,350 Bitcoins from December 9 to 15, spending approximately $1.5 billion on average per Bitcoin. This new purchase boosts their existing Bitcoin holdings to over 439,000 coins, which they’ve previously acquired for an average cost of around $61,725 each.

Is Bitcoin’s upward trend going to lift certain alternative coins as well, or should we expect a downturn soon? To help us decide, let’s examine the graphs and gather insights.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is encountering a roadblock around 6,100, yet it’s encouraging to note that the bullish investors haven’t lost significant control to the bearish ones so far.

If the cost increases from its current position or bounces off the 20-day exponential moving average (around 6,020), the buyers will strive to drive the price towards the resistance point. This level is significant because surpassing it would undermine the bearish rising wedge configuration. Subsequently, the index could ascend to 6,221 and potentially reach 6,500.

For bears to regain their strength and potentially drop the price, it’s crucial that they manage to pull the value under the 50-day simple moving average (around 5,912). This action would finalize the bearish trend, paving the way for a possible decline towards 5,670.

US dollar Index price analysis

In simpler terms, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is making an effort to climb higher, reaching around 108. However, at this level, it may encounter strong opposition from sellers who could potentially present a significant obstacle to its upward movement.

If the price decreases from its current position or fails to surpass the overhead resistance and drops below the 20-day Moving Average (MA) of 106.30, it could indicate a potential period of fluctuation in the near future. The index might oscillate between approximately 105.42 and 108 for some time.

If the price drops and falls below 105.42, it’ll open up the possibility for the significant price range between 101 and 108. On the flip side, if the price surpasses 108, it could initiate a new trend, potentially pushing the index up to 114.

Bitcoin price analysis

Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a robust surge in value. On December 15th, the optimistic investors managed to drive the cost to an unprecedented record peak surpassing $104,088.

In this ascending channel for BTC/USDT, the price has now hit the upper boundary, which is typically a point where sellers might attempt a significant pushback. But if buyers are able to break through this resistance, we could potentially see the pair soaring up to $113,331 and then possibly even reaching $125,000.

If the price falls from the resistance line and drops beneath the 20-day EMA ($98,920), this indicates that it’s a good idea to sell during uptrends. The pair might then descend towards the channel’s support line. For a temporary resurgence, traders need to drive the price below the support line.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) is steadily moving towards around $4,094, a level at which the bulls might face strong opposition from the bears.

With the ascending moving averages and RSI exceeding 61, it appears that the trend is likely heading upward. If purchasers manage to break through the $4,094 resistance level, the ETH/USDT pair might climb as high as $4,500. As long as the price remains above the 20-day moving average ($3,747), the positive outlook for this market remains strong.

If the price falls and drops below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it may signal that the buyers are losing their grip. This decline might push the pair towards the crucial support level, which is the downtrend line.

XRP price analysis

On December 15th, XRP (XRP) moved past its downward trendline, yet the bulls have been finding it challenging to propel the price upwards further.

The bears are aiming to drag the price towards the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $2.18, which is a crucial support level to keep an eye on in the upcoming period. If the price bounces back from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another effort to push the XRP/USDT pair up towards $2.64 and subsequently $2.91.

In another scenario, if the price dips beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it could indicate that the bears are regaining strength. The currency pair might then drop down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.90, a point where traders anticipate potential buyers to re-enter the market.

Solana price analysis

Over the last few days, Solana (SOL) has found itself sandwiched between its moving averages, hinting at an imminent potential breakout.

Should the price drop and persistently fall beneath its 50-day Simple Moving Average ($216), this could indicate that the bears are attempting to seize control. Potentially, the pair could plummet towards a crucial support zone where the bulls must make their stand.

Should the price bounce strongly from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the bulls will strive to push the SOL/USDT pair past the current resistance level. If they succeed in doing so, the pair could potentially rise to approximately $248 and then aim for $264, a point where the bears are likely to put up a tough fight.

BNB price analysis

The price of BNB (BNB) has been holding steady around the $722 level, a potential resistance point, suggesting that buyers have continued to exert force in the market.

Based on the upward trend of moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering slightly above the midpoint, it appears buyers may have a slight advantage. If the bulls manage to drive the price beyond $722, the BNB/USDT pair could potentially increase towards $761, and if this level is surpassed, it might even reach $794.

As an analyst, if I were looking at the market behavior of these bears, I’d advise them to act promptly and push the price under our 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently around $696. This strategic move could entice short-term buyers to cash out their gains, potentially causing the pair to dip towards our 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $645.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is experiencing a fierce struggle between buyers and sellers, with the action happening close to the lower boundary of an upwardly sloping trend channel.

In simpler terms, the 20-day moving average (EMA) is currently at around $0.40, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to its midpoint. This situation doesn’t clearly favor either the buyers (bulls) or the sellers (bears). If the price goes above $0.43, however, it could shift the advantage to the buyers. This increase might propel the Dogecoin (DOGE) and Tether (USDT) pair towards $0.48 and then up to the channel’s resistance line.

Instead of rising, falling below $0.36 might signal the beginning of a more significant downtrend. The currency pair could slide down to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $0.34, which is an important support level for the bulls to maintain. If this level weakens, the pair may plummet towards $0.29.

Cardano price analysis

Attempts by buyers to maintain Cardano’s price above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($1.06) are ongoing, yet they struggle to initiate a significant rally. This lack of momentum heightens the possibility of a potential drop in the price.

If the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) drops, it’s possible that the Cardano (ADA)/Tether (USDT) pair might move down to a strong support level at approximately $0.90. Currently, the 20-day EMA is relatively flat and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the midpoint, indicating a potential period of sideways movement in the near future. The pair could fluctuate between $0.90 and $1.20 for a while.

To increase their position, buyers must push the price beyond $1.20, which could lead to an upward trend reaching approximately $1.25 and then potentially $1.33. On the flip side, a fall below $0.90 might cause the pair to drop towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $0.80.

Avalanche price analysis

On December 15th, the bears made an attempt to drag Avalanche (AVAX) down below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $47.80, but the bulls refused to yield their position.

Nevertheless, the bulls’ inability to keep the AVAX/USDT price above $51 on December 16 has led to another wave of selling pressure. The bears are currently attempting to drive the pair below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). If they succeed, the pair might plummet towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $38.69.

If buyers aim to avoid potential losses, they’ll need to promptly raise the price over $51 again. This action suggests purchase at lower prices, increasing the likelihood of surpassing $56. The price trend could then escalate towards $60 and potentially reach $65, but here the sellers are anticipated to present a tough resistance.

2024-12-16 20:50