As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience navigating market cycles, I find myself aligning with Arthur Hayes’ cautious stance. The optimism surrounding President-elect Trump’s inauguration in 2025 and its potential impact on cryptocurrencies is palpable, but as Hayes rightly points out, the chasm between high expectations and swift policy implementation is vast.
Commentators and watchers of the cryptocurrency market anticipate favorable market movements around U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025; however, Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, presents a contrasting viewpoint.
As a researcher, I’d like to emphasize that one should exercise caution when anticipating rapid shifts in cryptocurrency policies, as there often exists a significant disparity between market expectations and the actual pace of policy implementation. Trump’s promises notwithstanding, it is crucial to acknowledge this gap and approach such changes with measured optimism.
According to a post dated December 17th on his “Trump Truth” blog, Hayes announced that his investment firm, Maelstrom, intends to sell certain holdings ahead of time in order to purchase them again at reduced costs during the first half of 2025.
Contrary to several predictors, Hayes expresses skepticism about nations, including the U.S., setting up Bitcoin (BTC) reserves in the immediate future.
A gap between high expectations and no quick solutions
According to Hayes’ statement, the market is optimistic that Trump and his team could swiftly bring about both economic and political wonders, but he pointed out a substantial chasm between these lofty investor hopes and the lack of swift, politically viable resolutions on hand.
According to Hayes’ prediction, it’s expected that the implementation of any new cryptocurrency policies could take much longer than what the market anticipates.
“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has, at best, one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades.”
Thus, Hayes predicted a severe snowfall or stormy period near Trump’s inauguration day, followed by a “crack-up-boom phase” for cryptocurrency around mid-2025.
Hayes’ Maelstrom plans to sell in advance
In anticipation of significant market declines following Trump’s inauguration in January, Maelstrom – the investment fund run by Hayes’ family office – plans to sell certain positions, with the intention of purchasing them again at reduced prices later on.
Hayes mentioned that Maelstrom may start reducing its holdings in specific areas ahead of time, with the aim of buying back important assets at potentially reduced costs during the early part of 2025,” (paraphrased sentence)
The businessman justified the sale by stating that long-term investors are “underinvested for the rest of the bull market,” while many hodlers “most often end up selling too early.” He added:
“We are committed to admitting defeat if the bull market steamrolls through Jan. 20, licking our wounds, and getting back on the bull […] I will be buying dips and rips.”
After Donald Trump’s win in the presidential election in late October, cryptocurrency markets experienced a significant upsurge, reaching unprecedented heights. By early December, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $100,000 for the first time ever.
Multiple experts forecast that the modifications in cryptocurrency policies under Trump could potentially make Bitcoin and decentralized finance more widely accepted.
According to the cryptocurrency platform based in Singapore, Matrixport, Bitcoin is predicted to kick off 2025 with significant strength. They also mentioned that numerous investors might find themselves questioning why they hadn’t amassed more of it in retrospect.
But it’s not just Hayes who anticipates some negative market movements in early 2025; Protos suggests a market rumor that MicroStrategy might be entering a blackout period starting from January 2025. During this time, they would not be allowed to issue shares or convertible bonds for buying more Bitcoin.
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2024-12-18 17:01