As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I have seen my fair share of price fluctuations and market trends. The recent dip in Bitcoin‘s price from $108,000 to $94,000 is not entirely unexpected, given the rapid bull rally we witnessed in November and December of 2024.
Having closely followed the market sentiment and on-chain metrics for several years now, I find it interesting to see the Bitcoin Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio dipping below 1, signaling that bears may be in control for a short while. However, I am cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of BTC, as it has remained above its 200-day EMA and the RSI is neither overbought nor oversold.
I also find it intriguing to observe the rising USDt market dominance and the predictions of a price correction by traders such as “The ForexX Mindset” and Aksel Kibar. While I always take these predictions with a grain of salt, it is important to keep an eye on such signals and adjust one’s investment strategy accordingly.
In terms of the long-term price of Bitcoin during this cycle, I believe that the incoming Trump administration’s regulatory stance and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in 2025 will play a significant role. However, as we all know, predicting the future is always a risky business, especially in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Finally, I would like to add a light-hearted note: As the saying goes, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” So, let’s hope that our collective solvency holds up as we navigate this volatile market and look forward to the opportunities that 2025 may bring!
On December 29th, the cost of a single Bitcoin (BTC) dropped under the $94,000 mark – a decrease from the record high of around $108,000 that was reached on December 17, 2024.
Based on information from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has decreased approximately 1.29% over the last day and 2.67% during the past week.
As an analyst, I find myself observing that the current trading price of Bitcoin is significantly lower than its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). At present, it seems to be heading towards the 50-day EMA, a trend that aligns with Bitcoin’s price consolidation within the range of $92,000 and $99,000. This consolidation comes after Bitcoin experienced a historic bull rally in November and December.
Despite dropping below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in October 2024, Bitcoin’s price has consistently stayed above this important support level ever since. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, suggesting that the digital currency is neither experiencing excessive buying pressure (overbought) nor selling pressure (oversold).
Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio dips below 1, and USDT dominance increases
In simpler terms, the Bitcoin Ratio for Buying and Selling (a tool measuring market sentiment) stands at 0.92 right now. If this ratio falls below 1, it suggests that the bears (those who believe prices will fall) are dominating the market. Conversely, if the ratio exceeds 1, it implies that the bulls (those who believe prices will rise) are in control.
The contributor on TradingView known as “The ForexX Mindset” has cautioned investors about an impending market sell-off potentially lowering Bitcoin’s value to approximately $81,500. This prediction is based on the observation that increasing dominance of USDT (Tether) in the market may signal a decrease in Bitcoin’s price.
The increasing influence of USDt suggests that investors are moving towards safer investments, hedging against potential risks, and waiting for the right moment to act again.
Analyst Aksel Kibar also foresaw a possible price drop towards approximately $80,000. He explained that a traditional “head and shoulders” chart configuration suggested the possibility of Bitcoin experiencing a brief downturn in the upcoming days and weeks.
Perpetual futures funding rates remain positive
Regardless of the negative indicators from on-chain analytics and the cautious outlook among market participants, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates continue to show a favorable trend.
A higher funding rate means that those who have bought assets (long positions) dominate the market, as they are prepared to compensate traders holding short positions for maintaining their positions.
In 2025, the future cost of Bitcoin over a prolonged period could significantly rely on the regulatory approach of the then-current Trump administration and the monetary policies set by the Federal Reserve.
The lack of clarity on this matter has resulted in a broad range of predicted prices for the decentralized digital currency. Recently, Blockware, a mining company in the crypto sphere, has projected that Bitcoin’s value could range from $150,000 to $400,000 when we move into the new year.
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2024-12-29 23:02