As a researcher studying cryptocurrencies, I observed that the value of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced renewed fluctuations on January 10, as optimism about crypto-related capital inflows from the U.S. was dampened by the release of macroeconomic data.
Bitcoin wobbles on US nonfarm payrolls beat
According to information from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, the value of Bitcoin relative to the U.S. dollar suddenly dropped by $1,500 when the December nonfarm payrolls (NFP) figures surpassed predictions.
Demonstrating a robust job market, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report exerted pressure on various risky investments, with reduced unemployment numbers further contributing to this trend.
It seems that recent market indications suggest a decreased probability for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as substantially or swiftly as earlier anticipated. Consequently, this could diminish the potential influx of liquidity towards assets such as stocks, bonds, and even digital currencies like Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
According to the most recent information from the FedWatch Tool by CME Group, the probability of a 0.25% reduction in interest rates during the Federal Reserve’s January meeting is only 2.7%.
NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) numbers showed a strong economy, with low unemployment rate (UNRATE), which is usually good news,” Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, explained in his analysis on X. “However, this seems to have had an opposite effect on Bitcoin and the broader market, causing them to drop. This could be because it suggests that there will be fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) in 2025.
Alan admitted that the holiday season probably affected the figures, and any market impact from it might soon be eclipsed by the beginning of President-elect Donald Trump’s new term in office.
It’s important to mention that during the holiday period, there is usually a rise in job openings, which affected the reports he was discussing.
“Also worth pointing out that the market is speculating on the entire year despite the fact that we have a new administration coming in 10 days that is going to enact policies that likely have a profound impact on the economy.”
One of the two provided graphs illustrates the current liquidity situation in the Binance BTC/USDT trading market. At present, $88,000 and $90,000 are noticeable areas providing support for potential price levels.
Yesterday’s Bitcoin price movement took an unexpected downturn, interrupting an unusually prolonged streak of 14 green candles on the hourly chart – a phenomenon not seen since 2017.
As a researcher observing the market dynamics, I noticed that although there were responses, the focus of traders seemed to be primarily on well-trodden grounds as the BTC/USD pair traded within a comfort zone. Notably, distinct support and resistance levels could be easily discerned, indicating boundaries that the market was consistently testing.
Daan Crypto Trades warned his X followers that on shorter timeframes, the market tends to move only up or down, which can lead to many traders getting cut up in the process.
“Zooming out is my recommendation.”
Analyst sees “high probability” of BTC price reversal
Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital struck an optimistic note.
By examining the day-to-day price graph, he observed a persistent bullish divergence unfolding in the Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) relative strength index (RSI) chart.
Previously, as per CryptoMoon’s report, the RSI for an hour reached its lowest point since early October.
On that particular day, it was noted that Bitcoin seems to be exhibiting Bullish Divergence at the lower end of its support level around $91,000, indicating a potential rise in value.
Previous posts about Bitcoin have again emphasized that a dip from record highs is a common occurrence in past Bitcoin market rallies.
In the seventh week, Bitcoin began a decline of about 15%. This dip aligns with typical patterns seen historically, as pointed out by Rekt Capital.
“It is the first Price Discovery Correction of this cycle. As a result, it has a high-probability of reversal.”
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2025-01-10 18:39