- Hayes foresees a Bitcoin freefall, as the CME Futures ‘yield’ withers away like autumn leaves.
- Chris Burniske, however, sees it as just another mid-bull run blip, not the end of days.
In the year of our Lord 2025, Bitcoin [BTC] has danced with the devil at $91k, not once, not twice, but four times, its losses mounting to a chilling 16% since the January zenith of $109.5K.
But fear not, for Arthur Hayes, the almighty Founder of BitMEX and CIO at crypto fund Maelstrom, suggests that BTC’s woes are but a prelude to a greater saga.
What Lurks in BTC’s Future?
In a missive from the digital mount, Hayes prophesied a Bitcoin plummet to $70K, blaming the unappealing CME Futures ‘yield’ that may trigger a mass exodus by the titans of finance.
Hayes unveiled a chart, a veritable crystal ball, showing short-term U.S. treasuries yielding a meager 4.3%. Meanwhile, the BTC CME basis has taken a post-election nosedive, and the ETH CME trade boasts returns that would make Croesus weep with envy.
Last week, K33 Research’s own seer, Vetle Lunde, observed that the CME BTC Futures basis (monthly) had sunk to the depths last seen in the waning days of 2023.
For the uninitiated, the Futures basis is the mystical chasm between the BTC Futures and spot index prices. A high positive number is a beacon of bullish fervor, while a declining or negative number is a harbinger of gloom and doom.
Yet, the sages at Bitfinex have traced BTC’s maladies to the capricious whims of the macro gods, which have also plagued the U.S. equity market.
“The downturn has been exacerbated by macro-driven uncertainty, as well as Bitcoinʼs increasing correlation with traditional markets.”
They note that the S&P 500’s stumble has quenched the risk-taking thirst of investors, BTC included.
Amidst the sell-off and collective gasping, Chris Burniske, a knight of crypto VC Placeholder, holds fast to the belief that this is but a mid-bull run reset, a scene played out in 2021. He declares,
“In the middle of 2021, $BTC drew down 56%…You can conjure all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we’re going through isn’t without precedent.”
From a fundamental standpoint, BTC’s overheated levels above 2 on the Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) echo a similar pattern to the early 2024 local top.
If history is indeed a cruel mistress, a cycle top may be in sight should the MVRV dare to touch 3.
However, should the $91K-$90K support crumble, as it has held steadfast for three long months, the market structure for the king-coin may be irrevocably altered.
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2025-02-25 12:11