Bitcoin’s Fate: A Tale of Cycles and Uncertainty

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On this very Thursday, the price of Bitcoin, that most perplexing of digital currencies, remained steadfast above the sum of $87,000, thereby igniting a most animated discourse amongst the learned analysts of our time. This conversation, dear reader, centers around the fate of its once-unquestionable four-year cycle, a cycle traditionally linked to those dramatic post-halving rallies that have so captured the public imagination. Yet now, this cycle finds itself under the microscope, as the march of market sophistication, the ever-shifting sands of regulatory developments, and the broader economic tides conspire to challenge its once-reliable predictability.

Bitcoin’s 34% Post-Halving Gain: A Sign of Times Uncertain, or Simply a Late Bloomer?

At the appointed hour of 4 p.m. Eastern Time on this very day, March 27, 2025, bitcoin ( BTC) was recorded at the sum of $87,027, a figure quite distant from its lifetime zenith of $109,356, achieved on the momentous day of Jan. 20, 2025—the day President Donald Trump took his oath as the 47th U.S. President. The digital asset’s subsequent volatility has once again kindled a fierce debate: Has bitcoin’s celebrated four-year cycle, once propelled by halving-induced supply shocks, lost its mystical predictive power? 🤔

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, a grand narrative if ever there was one, revolves around those much-discussed halving events, programmed to grace us every 210,000 blocks (or thereabouts four years), which so dramatically slash the reward for mining new blocks by half. These events, by reducing the rate of new bitcoin supply, have historically_triggered price surges as demand outstrips the dwindling issuance. Past cycles have witnessed gains of a most meteoric nature: After the 2012 halving, bitcoin soared from $12 to $1,000 in a mere year; post-2016, it leapt from $650 to nearly $20,000; and following the 2020 halving, it rocketed from $8,000 to $69,000.

Read more$70 million in 24 hours: Can Ethereum crack $4,000 thanks to whales?

However, the April 2024 halving—which saw block rewards reduced to a mere 3.125 BTC—has delivered a rather muted 33.85% price increase from $65,012 to $87,027 per coin by March 27, 2025, a performance that pales in comparison to prior triple- or quadruple-digit gains. 📉

Forces Arrayed Against the Cycle

Several forces are cited for this underperformance. First, the January 2024 approval of bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) catalyzed a pre-halving rally, with prices peaking near $74,000 in March 2024. Analysts argue this pulled forward demand that might otherwise have followed the halving. Secondly, bitcoin’s market maturity has diluted the halving’s impact. “Halvings no longer have the fundamental effect they did in 2016,” said Jasper De Maere of Outlier Ventures, noting that institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors now dominate. Thirdly, bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. economic health—such as the 2024 Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) contraction—has overshadowed supply dynamics.

Bitcoin’s quarterly returns since 2013.

Finally, President Trump’s March 2025 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) announcement, lacking concrete buying plans, disappointed investors, contributing to a further price drop from January’s peak. Comparative data reinforces the cycle’s anomaly. One year post-halving, bitcoin’s gains have dwindled from 8,233% (2012), 285% (2016), and 525% (2020) to just 33.85% so far in 2024–2025.

Even more telling: After briefly touching $109,356 in January 2025, bitcoin shed value amid policy uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds specifically associated with Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s 2024–2025 performance so far marks its weakest post-halving return to date, with August 2024 dubbed the worst post-halving month. 📊

The Great Divide: Bulls vs. Bears

Read moreBitcoin halving could be a ‘sell-the-news’ event, at least for a few months

Proponents of the cycle’s endurance point to historical patterns. Some note that peaks typically occur 12–18 months post-halving, suggesting a late-2025 surge. Some analysts project a $125,000 peak in 2025 followed by a correction to $50,000 in 2026, aligning with past cycles. Others have highlighted “exponential gains” midway through the current cycle, reminiscent of prior halving phases.

Fundstrat co-founder and managing partner Tom Lee still believes BTC will be 2025’s best-performing asset, even outpacing gold’s massive rise this year. Conversely, skeptics cite risks of macroeconomic stagnation, and extremely bearish forecasts warn of a plunge below $20,000 if demand falters.

The debate reflects bitcoin’s maturation from a niche asset to a macro-economic player. While the modest gain defies historical norms, many believers caution against dismissing cyclicality entirely, noting bitcoin’s post-2024 halving rise—albeit modest—still followed an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, Trump’s policy moves and ETF inflows signal deepening institutionalization, potentially reshaping price drivers. Whether its cycle is extinct or merely evolving remains the trillion-dollar question. 💰

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2025-03-28 00:59