When Bitcoin Laughs: Tariffs & Tragedy in the Crypto Realm! 🤔💰

What to know:

By Mr. Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the tempest of trade uneasily brews betwixt the United States and China, whereby the latter hath raised tariffs on the former from 84% to a most alarming 125% this morning, the intrepid Bitcoin (BTC) and its motley crew of cryptocurrencies seem largely unmoved—a most curious spectacle indeed! 😏

Remarkably, Bitcoin’s value hath diminished a mere 0.15% in the last 24 hours, whilst it merrily continues its ascent, now trading north of $82,000! Oh, the resilience! The broader crypto collective, measured by the illustrious CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, too appears unwavering, as if in an elegant ballroom dance. 💃

Alas, there exists an ill fate for other assets. Gold has gallantly reached a new zenith of $3,227.5, thus rendering Tether’s XAUT—the ethereal coin backed by gold—the most celebrated of digital fortunes. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hath plummeted below the coveted 100 mark, regaling us with its largest fall since the year of 2022. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Treasuries proudly marches higher, settling near 4.4%. Such drama! 🎭

“We find ourselves in the midst of a dollar confidence crisis,” mused the wizened strategists of ING, including the articulate Francesco Pesole, as they communicated their sentiments via the printed word—albeit, in a tone delightfully reserved. 😜

Our fair U.S. witnessed a decline in inflation last month, prompting wild speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon resume its pursuit of lowered rates. However, the market hath grasped this news as a harbinger of diminishing demand, thus entwining itself deeper into crisis. How dreadfully romantic! 💔

This “confidence crisis” doth appear to bless every asset with gains against the dollar—save for crypto, of course! Bitcoin investors have seen their fortunes diminish, with losses verging on $250 million within mere six hours amidst recent tumult, per the wise counsel of Glassnode. Yet, the sun doth rise again, suggesting a hint of exhaustion amongst sellers. Remain ever vigilant! ⚠️

Token Talk

By Sirs Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight

A most unfortunate stablecoin (sUSD) associated with the decentralized derivatives exchange Synthetix underwent a severe depeg on the day of Friday, tumbling most distressingly down to $0.86! The cause? A most perplexing governance proposal known as SIP-420, compelling a shift from the charming individual staking to a most impractical pooled staking.
This measure hath led to 2.5 times more sUSD minted per staked synthetix (SNX) token, whilst simultaneously discouraging the noble stakers from purchasing sUSD; all debts now languishing in a communal pool, rather than residing in individual wallets. 🤷‍♂️
Notably, the Synthetix team hath assured us via the digital forum known as Discord that they shall “continue to up the ante for Curve pools,” insisting that the sUSD peg is of utmost importance. In a dastardly turn of events, an MEV (Miner Extractable Value) bot dubbed “Yoink” exploited weaknesses within Wayfinder’s PROMPT token airdrop, cunningly employing a front-running stratagem to pilfer approximately 119 ETH ($200,000 at current evaluation) from Kaito users. How scandalous!
Wayfinder, an audacious AI blockchain venture, launched the PROMPT token airdrop for users possessing PRIME (the esteemed Echelon Prime governance token) or those who garnered “Yaps” on Kaito—a platform that doth analyze social media for crypto insights. The dishonest bot focused its malice upon Kaito’s diligent “Yappers,” who had earnestly completed social missions, causing TokenTable to halt claims while they address the wickedness and pledge user compensation. A melodrama for the ages! 📜
MEV attacks, indeed, are becoming more sophisticated, with villains deploying AI-driven bots like Yoink. TokenTable hath affirmed the security of their smart contracts and shall surmount the challenges posed by thwarted transactions, promising an elaborate report once the claims process resumes.

Derivatives Positioning

Throughout the various exchanges, notional open interest in BTC futures hath increased notably beyond the price of the cryptocurrency in the preceding 24 hours, suggesting an influx of fresh capital as the market seeks to establish a robust bottom.
Similar inclinations are evident in the futures of SOL and DOGE, while traders don a cautious countenance regarding ETH and XRP futures markets.
Funding rates for the top 25 coins do waver between 0% to 10%, which suggests a sentiment perhaps characterized as cautiously optimistic. 🧐
BTC’s options-based implied volatility term structure hath normalized, unlike ETH’s, which remains in backwardation—indicative of fears regarding potential price fluctuations in the immediate future.
Mixed currents flow through Deribit, with call spreads booked in BTC whilst SOL puts are delicately rolling via OTC platform Paradigm.

Market Movements:

BTC stands steady at $82,013.36 (24hrs: +0.81%)
ETH hath ascended 1.9% to $1,559.54 (24hrs: +5.22%)
CoinDesk 20 hath risen 3.43% to 2,379.04 (24hrs: +0.64%)
The Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate hath increased by 17 basis points to 3.4%
BTC’s funding rate rests at -0.0018% (-2.0049% annualized) upon the Binance platform.

DXY doth languish, down 1.1% to 99.75
Gold ascends 2.51% to $3,234.50 per ounce
Silver hath risen 1.79% to $31.22 per ounce
The Nikkei 225 hath closed down by 2.96% at 33,585.58
Hang Seng, by contrast, hath finished its trading day with a modest gain of 1.13% at 20,914.69
FTSE remains down by 0.51% at 7,872.98
Euro Stoxx 50 doth stand reduced by 1.72% at 4,736.11
The DJIA concluded trading on Thursday down 2.5% at 39,593.66
The S&P 500 finished down 3.46% at 5,268.05
The Nasdaq closed with an air of melancholy, down 4.31% at 16,387.31
The S&P/TSX Composite Index hath finished down by 3% at 23,014.90
The S&P 40 Latin America concluded its trading down 3.2% at 2,255.64
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hath gracefully declined, down 4 bps to 4.4%
E-mini S&P 500 futures find themselves down 0.38% at 5,281.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.44% at 18,403.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures conclude the day down 0.4% at 39,637.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.55 (0.50%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01898 (-0.78%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 901 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $42.4
Total Fees: 5.2 BTC / $424,070
CME Futures Open Interest: 129,830
BTC priced in gold: 25.5/oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.24

Technical Analysis

BTC’s 30-day momentum indicator, which doth measure the rate of change in prices over a fortnight, has lately turned upward, diverging from the otherwise languishing prices.
This divergence, paired with Wednesday’s rather bullish outside day candle, doth suggest that the path of least resistance may lean towards the upside.
A possible surge past the descending trendline could unlock the gates to resistance at $88,000 (the peak of late March), followed closely by $92,000, which served as a robust support earlier this annum.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $272.34 (-8.26%), currently up 4.48% at $284.54 in pre-market flux
Coinbase Global (COIN): hath closed at $169.62 (-4.22%), now raised to 2.46% at $173.80
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): hath closed at C$14.35 (-5.53%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): hath closed at $11.74 (-4.63%), up to $12.23
Riot Platforms (RIOT): hath closed at $6.79 (-7.99%), currently at $6.97, so there’s hope yet!
Core Scientific (CORZ): hath closed at $6.82 (-9.19%), and doth now rise to $7.01
CleanSpark (CLSK): hath closed at $7.13 (-6.55%) but is up to $7.38!
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): hath closed at $12.01 (-8.04%), now making strides up to $12.50
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.63 (-7.2%) but hath seen a rise to $33.99
Exodus Movement (EXOD): hath closed at $41.07 (-4.80%), now declining slightly to $40.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$149.5 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.46 billion
Total BTC holdings amount to ~ 1.10 million

Spot ETH ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$38.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.32 billion
Total ETH holdings amount to ~ 3.37 million

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

As the U.S.-China trade skirmish doth intensify, analysts keenly predict that Beijing shall devalue the yuan to counteract Trump’s harsh tariffs, quite possibly prompting a capital migration into the hallowed halls of bitcoin.
Alas, the options market dost reveal no signs of protective hedging against a potential devaluation of the yuan. The 25-delta risk reversal for the USD/CNH hovers just above 1, indicating mild preferences for calls intended to shield against yuan depreciation. Higher values were noted before the previous devaluation episodes of 2015 and 2016, as proclaimed by the venerable Senior Fellow of The Brookings Institution, Robin Brooks. 📈