Bitcoin’s Glittering Future: Why the Degrossing Drama Could Lead to a Moonshot

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Ah, Bitcoin – the grand enigma of our time, perpetually caught in the gravitational clutches of forced deleveraging. But fear not! Felix Jauvin, the oracle of macro strategy, insists that this moment of financial purgation is merely “the prelude to an incredible trade.” Yes, according to Jauvin, the clearing of risk books is akin to stretching before the sprint of a lifetime – and oh, that sprint will be spectacular once the “degrossing” phase is over. It’s just a matter of time, folks. Buckle up! 🚀

Bitcoin Amid the Trump Tornado 🌪️

Jauvin, ever the academic, leans heavily on the revered work of Michael Howell (yes, that Michael Howell) for his insights. According to Howell’s Granger‑causality tests (sure, everyone’s familiar with those), global liquidity takes a casual 11-week lead over Bitcoin’s movements. Forget about “equity-style beta,” Jauvin scoffs, dismissing it as a “spurious correlation.” You see, US equities have simply been the convenient conduit for global dollar liquidity since the pandemic. A little thing called “deficits,” Jauvin reminds us, has caused this influx of liquidity. We’ve all been swimming in it, whether we like it or not.

Jauvin is also quick to highlight the obvious: the United States is running a “substantially higher fiscal deficit” than the rest of the world. This, in turn, stirs up the usual suspects: higher inflation, fatter nominal GDP, and consequently, a jolly old time for US corporations. Naturally, the S&P 500 and, quite conveniently, Bitcoin, have come to dominate the world of risky asset growth. It’s a bit like a high-stakes poker game, where the US always holds the best hand. Until now, perhaps? 🤔

But wait, the plot thickens. Enter Trump, stage left, with his grand ambition to shrink the trade deficit and prod other countries into hefty spending sprees on defense and infrastructure. Jauvin is practically licking his lips: “The Trump administration wants to lower trade deficits with other countries,” he writes, as though it’s some grand revelation. This would, of course, result in fewer US dollars flowing abroad, which, in theory, will weaken the dollar and boost foreign currencies. A weaker dollar? Oh yes, that’s just the cherry on top of this financial sundae.

As Jauvin sees it, Trump’s chaotic trade tactics are nudging the world to “unshackle themselves from their meagre fiscal deficits.” Apparently, it’s a global self-liberation movement we didn’t know we needed. Governments, perhaps tired of living in the fiscal gutter, might start spending more on defense and industry, pushing liquidity out of Washington and into Europe and Asia. The US might have to contend with the not-so-pleasant reality of a “wider margin of safety” as its fiscal policies hit a snag.

Why Bitcoin, Why Now, and Why After the Sell-Off? 💸

Jauvin, ever the pragmatist, sees the current turmoil as little more than an extended purgatory for crowded positions. “The first trade,” he suggests, “is to sell US‑dollar assets that the entire world is overweight in and avoid the degrossing that is ongoing.” In other words, everyone’s scrambling to raise cash, and poor Bitcoin has been stuck in the tech beta quagmire for now. But don’t despair! Jauvin’s second phase is just around the corner: assets not tainted by national accounts or tariff risks will be the true winners. Watch out, world, here comes Bitcoin! 🏇

Gold has already started to strut its stuff, Jauvin notes. But Bitcoin? Not quite yet. Bitcoin has been a bit of a wallflower, failing to match gold’s glittering performance. However, Jauvin remains optimistic. For him, Bitcoin presents “the cleanest trade after the trade here.” After all, it can’t be tariffed, it doesn’t care about borders, and it offers a delightful exposure to global liquidity – not just the American kind. It’s practically a VIP pass to the global party, and Jauvin is all in. 🤑

But the real kicker? Jauvin sees the potential for Bitcoin to break free from its long-standing relationship with US tech stocks. That’s right – Bitcoin might finally decouple from the tech heavyweights it’s been shackled to for so long. If this sounds familiar, that’s because many have been burned by this dream before. But Jauvin, with all the confidence of a well-heeled speculator, believes that this time, things are different. Yes, we might finally witness the shift in capital flows that makes Bitcoin’s independence not just a pipedream, but a solid reality. ⚡

In conclusion, Jauvin offers a bold prediction: the current chaos is but the necessary prelude to a dramatic re-rating of Bitcoin. “This market regime is what Bitcoin was built for,” he declares. Once the dust settles, Bitcoin will charge out of the gate faster than a horse with a jetpack. Accelerate, indeed! 🏎️💨

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at a cool $84,766.

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2025-04-17 16:40