Bitcoin’s Bonkers Bounce: Will It Burst? 🤯

by

Bitcoin, that rascal, tried to sneak past the $86,000 wall again on April 16th, but no such luck! 😜 Seems old Jerome Powell, the Fed’s head honcho, put a damper on things by grumbling about Trump’s tariffs. Tariffs, pah! Sounds like something out of a dusty history book. 📚

Since April 9th, Bitcoin’s been playing peek-a-boo, its price bouncing between $75,000 and $86,400 like a rubber ball. But it just can’t seem to clamber over that $86,000 hurdle. What a pickle! 🥒

Now, everyone’s scratching their heads, wondering where this digital doohickey is headed next. It’s stuck tighter than a tick on a dog, especially if you squint at the 4-hour chart. 🐕

A Whopping 88% Chance of… Nothing!

Those Polymarket gamblers reckon there’s an 88% chance the interest rates will stay put, like stubborn mules. That leaves a measly 10% chance of a teeny-tiny rate cut. Bah humbug! 😒

But hold your horses! Some say the market’s already sniffed out this boring news. Like a dog burying a bone, they’ve already forgotten about it. 🦴

On April 16th, Jerome Powell, looking ever so serious, hinted that the Fed isn’t in a rush to chop those interest rates. He wants to “wait-and-see,” like a cat watching a mouse hole. 😼 He needs more economic gobbledygook before making a move.

Powell whined about Trump’s tariffs again, saying they could make prices go up and growth go down. A “challenging scenario,” he called it! Sounds like a load of poppycock to me. 🤪

“The tariff increases are bigger than we thought,” Powell droned on, adding:

“The economic effects will include higher inflation and slower growth.” Blah, blah, blah. 😴

He wants to keep things tight to stop inflation from sticking around, meaning no quick rate cuts, despite all the market jitters and tariff troubles.

As a result, President Trump, in a fit of pique, threatened to fire Powell, calling him “always too late and wrong” and his report a “mess.” What a drama queen! 👑

“Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” he fumed. Sounds like a right old tantrum! 👶

Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there’s a 46% chance Bitcoin will hit $90,000 by April 30th, with a tiny 5% chance of soaring past $110,000. Don’t hold your breath, folks! 💨

Bitcoin’s Tricky Tipping Points

Bitcoin needs to flip that $86,000 resistance into a comfy support to aim for $90,000. Easier said than done! 🧗

To do that, BTC/USD needs to climb back above the 200-day exponential moving average (that purple line) at $87,740. It lost that line on March 9th, the first time since August 2024. Oh dear! 😟

Above that, there’s a huge supply zone all the way to $91,240, where the 100-day SMA sits. The bulls need to bulldoze through this barrier to have a chance at $100,000. Good luck with that! 🤞

On the other hand, the bears will try to keep that $86,000 resistance strong, making new lows under $80,000 more likely. A key spot is between $76,000 and the previous range lows at $74,000 – the old all-time high from March 2024. A right old mess! 💩

Below that, it’s back to the US election day price of $67,817, wiping out all the gains from the so-called Trump pump. What a disaster! 💥

Onchain analyst James Check says Bitcoin’s real bottom is at its “true market mean” – the average cost for active investors – around $65,000. A rather dismal thought. 🌧️

“The $75,000 zone is where the bulls need to defend,” Check said, adding:

“If they don’t, we go back to the chop consolidation range, and the flag in the sea of sand is $65,000.” Sounds like a rather sticky situation! 🍯

Interestingly, this price is close to Michael Saylor’s Strategy cost basis, which is around $67,500. A curious coincidence, indeed! 🤔

Read More

2025-04-17 17:53