Wall Street’s New Darlings? Why Solana & Litecoin Might Crash the ETF Party 🍸

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In a flourish worthy of a well-timed witticism at an otherwise tedious dinner party, Solana and Litecoin have sashayed to the front of the ETF approval queue—with all the enthusiasm of opera singers entering a cave, confident the echo will flatter their talents. The esteemed minds at Bloomberg Intelligence, perhaps divining tea leaves or merely reading the SEC’s inscrutable expressions, have decreed there’s a 90% chance of these coins vaulting the regulatory hurdle next year. One imagines the SEC is even now rolling its eyes in anticipation.

Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, those Delphic oracles of ETFs, have sounded the fanfare in public, presumably hoping for applause or at least some retweets. Their pronouncement: the SEC is thawing its icy heart and may soon bestow grace upon altcoin suitors—not content to remain in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s shadowy ballroom any longer.

“Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all good chance of happening. Here’s our latest odds of approval for all the dif spot ETFs via @JSeyff”

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas), 30 April 2025

Balchunas, ever a fan of public courtship, tossed this musing onto X, tagging SEC Commissioner Atkins as if expecting a dramatic plot twist or a monogrammed invitation to tea. His musings accompanied a luscious chart positively dripping with numbers—and hope—setting forth the chances for a conga line of ETF applicants.

Solana and Litecoin, however, are clearly the belles of this particular ball. Their filings have already elicited a meaningful but noncommittal nod from the SEC, with final judgements pencilled in for that festive autumn month, October 2025—Solana on the 10th (presumably trusting in numerology), Litecoin on the 2nd (ever the eager beaver).

Why are spirits so buoyant, you ask? The SEC and its shy cousin, the CFTC, have started referring to these digital darlings as commodities rather than securities—apparently the financial world’s equivalent of being allowed to sit at the grown-ups’ table. Futures markets for both, meanwhile, have managed to survive the SEC’s typically glacial scrutiny, further bumping up their debutante ratings.

Lest you think Solana and Litecoin are alone in their aspirations, rest assured—almost every coin with a market cap, a logo, or a vaguely enthusiastic subreddit has thrown its hat into the ETF ring. Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin, and assorted other houses of finance are rooting for XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche, as though hoping for an ETF version of bingo.

For those who enjoy betting on approval odds the way Wilde himself wagered on aphorisms, here are the numbers to scribble in your margin: XRP nips at the frontrunners’ heels with 85%, Dogecoin and HBAR fetch 80% (just enough to keep the memes flowing), while Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche command a respectable 75%—solid B+ students in a room of overachievers.

As for timing, it is—like any good melodrama—deliciously uncertain. The SEC has penciled in Q4 of 2025 for most verdicts, but with the usual caveat that something—anything—could move the calendar if required. A sudden bout of ambition, political commotion, or even a stray tweet might just do the trick.

“We also had the SEC delay decisions on Ethereum Staking and Dogecoin ETFs today. I am expecting more delays today or at least this week on some Solana and Hedera/HBAR ETF filings. This is expected IMO. Final deadlines for most of this stuff is in October 2025 or later.”

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff), 29 April 2025

Seyffart, taking the role of Crypto Cassandra, has already prophesied further regulatory foot-dragging. Ethereum staking ETFs and Dogecoin have suffered the usual delays, with Solana and HBAR likely to join this exclusive Waiting Room of the Damned in the coming days. “This is expected,” he tweets, in a tone that suggests he’s been stood up for too many regulatory tea parties already.

The madcap rush of institutions headlong into crypto now boasts all the drama of a society scandal—Bitcoin and Ethereum are old news; the newcomers are hungrier, flashier, and entirely convinced the rules were written for someone else. The SEC? Under growing pressure to hand out dance cards to everyone. If Bloomberg’s crystal ball holds, 2025 just might see the altcoins waltz triumphantly into Wall Street’s embrace—champagne all round, unless, naturally, the SEC has misplaced the corkscrew. 🥂💃🕺

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2025-04-30 10:20