You Won’t Believe What a Dropping Fear Index Means for Bitcoin—$135K Within Reach?!

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Principal Revelations:

  • Bitcoin’s price, with the obstinacy of a country squire refusing to sell his estate, persists above $100,000—apparently unfazed by the world’s usual disquiet—buoyed by the sudden retreat of the troublesome Volatility Index (VIX) to a positively somnolent 20.

  • The so-called Bitcoin Bull Score Index, which, let us be honest, sounds like something invented by optimistic cattle, now gallops at a lively 80. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index hovers appreciably northward, hinting at the sort of speculative optimism that once led many a hapless soul to plant potatoes upside-down.

Behold the restless course of Bitcoin (BTC): now consolidating (a most polite term for failing to make up one’s mind) above $100,000. The CBOE Volatility Index—previously as wild as a dog that has caught sight of its own tail—has slumped to a 30-year average of 20, well beneath its tempestuous 60 from earlier in 2025. All this, it seems, after the grandiose US-China trade spectacle of May 12, where tariffs surrendered by 115% in a show of humility rarely matched outside of Russian novels.

This armistice, naturally, stoked a “risk-on” spirit among investors, sending them stampeding (with all the self-control of drunken peasants at a local fair) towards high-volatility assets: Bitcoin, foremost among them. Economist Timothy Peterson, on whose pronouncements the financial world now balances as on an old wooden fence, observed,

“$VIX dropped substantially yesterday on news of a potential China trade deal. It is now at ‘normal’ levels. This will be a ‘risk on’ environment for the foreseeable future.”

Should the tale end here? Oh, no—let us add inflation, which has now cooled to 2.3% year-over-year, the lowest since February 2021. With consensus forecasts outwitted (for surely a forecast is simply a formal invitation for fate to misbehave), this figure boasts of the faint promise that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, provided, of course, the winds and stars also approve.

The macroeconomic climate is, in sum, so mild that one might be forgiven for bringing out the samovar and inviting Bitcoin to tea. Volatility is down, inflation is as passive as an old gray cat, and the trade war’s cannon has—momentarily—run out of powder. Amid this pastoral tranquillity, Peterson has taken his statistician’s stick and prodded the numbers into predicting $135,000 for BTC within 100 days. He claims 95% accuracy—a confidence, dare one say, even grander than the promises of itinerant storytellers at the village inn.

Bitcoin bulls: Disposition improved, sense of reality optional 🐂

The month of April, historically as bleak for Bitcoin as the weather in Tula, gave way to the most exhilarating surge in sentiment in 2025. CryptoQuant data confirms that the Bull Score Index rocket-leaped from 20 to 80, a number usually witnessed only when someone’s had too much vodka. If history is any guide (and it rarely is), this kicks open the stable door for further price frolics reminiscent of the halcyon, halving-fueled days of yore.

This shift, propelled by a sudden thirst for spot Bitcoin, leaves supply in a state of confusion—much like a government official confronted by fresh responsibility. It echoes the aftershocks of the April 2024 halving, implying that Bitcoin is neither done nor dusted, but perhaps only pausing for breath.

Researcher Axel Adler Jr, not to be mistaken for a minor Gogol character, notes the Fear & Greed Index is climbing—53.3% and counting—while still shy of the infamous “overloaded” zone above 80%. Or, as a passing philosopher might remark, “There is still space on the train before it derails!” Adler anticipates the market’s possible ascent, hoping Bitcoin will, with appropriate fanfare and perhaps a misplaced shoe, best its previous high near $110,000. 🚂

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2025-05-14 02:13