- From May’s ‘extreme greed’ level, market sentiment has eased toward a neutral level. How quaint!
- Traders were offensively positioned for an upside ahead of the Fed rate decision. Because why not?
Ah, the crypto market! It has retreated to a state of near neutrality, much like a cat contemplating its next nap, just in time for this week’s Fed rate decision and the delightful chaos of Israel-Iran escalations. What a time to be alive!
In a shocking twist, last week’s ‘greed level’ reading of 62 and the ‘extreme greed’ values of 78 in May have now recalibrated to a rather pedestrian 60. How utterly thrilling!
Bitcoin Resilience: A Comedy of Mixed Signals
The Fed rate decision on the 18th of June is the pièce de résistance of this week’s events. The market, in its infinite wisdom, is pricing in a 99% chance that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. How original!
For context, U.S. inflation has been as muted as a librarian at a rock concert, and most experts are forecasting a potential relaxed rate policy from Q3 (around September). Because who doesn’t love a good rate cut?
In this delightful scenario, rate cuts would mean cheaper capital and a risk-on sentiment that could lift crypto markets, including our dear Bitcoin [BTC].
However, for the upcoming Fed announcement, any hawkish tone could add to the risk-off environment. Conversely, a bullish update could fuel market optimism. It’s like a soap opera, really!
But given the headline geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the market could remain on the edge of its seat until a potential solution to the chaos is reached. Grab your popcorn!
Surprisingly, Glassnode reported that market positioning remained bullish, with rising demand for short-dated calls (bullish bets) over puts (bearish bets). Who knew traders could be so optimistic?
“Over the past week, $BTC 25 Delta Skew has flipped decisively bullish – especially in short-dated options – despite a slight price decline. 1-week: -2.6% → +10.1%, 1-month: -2.2% → +4.9%. Traders are aggressively positioning for near-term upside or volatility.”
In addition, Swissblock analysts have pointed out that the BTC bullish structure remains intact and in a ‘low-risk’ regime despite the market jitters. How reassuring!
But Swissblock’s sister company, Bitcoin Vector, highlighted that there was ‘little evidence of sustained spot conviction.’ Because who needs conviction in a market like this?
“Structurally, Bitcoin remains intact, but… continues to trade within a tactical range, little evidence of sustained spot conviction…”
On the price front, there exists a +$6 billion liquidity pool on the upside if BTC crosses $112K. Similarly, there’s about a $5.9 billion pool on the lower side of price action. How delightful!
These areas ($103K, $108K, $110K) can act as price magnets, hence price could either hit $103K or zoom to $110K-$112K. What a thrilling ride!
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2025-06-16 19:11