El Salvador Bitcoin Bet Crashes: A $300M Slide

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Bitcoin, that capricious moth of the markets, flaps its wings with a stubborn gravity, and investors-from corporate treasuries to hulking whales, even states in their ceremonial armour-feel the chill of its flutter.

The cryptocurrency’s slide has lacerated El Salvador’s coffers, while credit default swaps pirouette to a five-month high, as if counting the tempo of a heart that forgot to beat to the IMF’s metronome and the debt outlook’s darker candle.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bet Under Pressure as Portfolio Drops

According to El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the reserves stand at 7,560 BTC, worth roughly $503.8 million. Bloomberg notes the value slid from around $800 million at Bitcoin’s October 2025 apex, a slide of nearly $300 million in four months, not a bad little tragedy for those who adore dramatic arithmetic.

Bukele, that ardent devotee of Bitcoin, plucks a single coin from the market’s pocket every day; a daily sacrament to volatility, conducted with the solemnity of a bibliophile counting marginalia.

In stark contrast, Bhutan recently disposed of $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin. The divergence is a portrait of two micro-nations, two temperaments, and a fiscal carnival with two different costumes.

BHUTAN JUST SOLD $6.7 MILLION BTC

Bhutan has been selling Bitcoin every week for the past 3 weeks.

– Arkham (@arkham) February 13, 2026

Bhutan’s mining operations generated more than $765 million in profit since 2019. Yet the 2024 Bitcoin halving inflated costs, squeezing margins and muting returns. Bhutan now appears to liquidate part of its holdings, while El Salvador marches on with long-term accumulation as if chasing a horizon that keeps receding.

Nonetheless, the country has diversified its portfolio. Last month, it spent $50 million to acquire gold as demand for the safe-haven metal rose amid macroeconomic tensions.

IMF Loan Talks Face Strain Over El Salvador’s Bitcoin Policy

El Salvador’s deepening devotion to cryptocurrency has unsettled the IMF. The government’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases, paired with delays in pension reforms, have tangled the threads of the country’s agreement with the Fund.

The Fund has voiced concern about Bitcoin’s potential impact on fiscal stability. A disruption to the IMF program would loosen one of the sturdy supports behind El Salvador’s sovereign debt recovery. Over the past three years, the country’s bonds have returned more than 130%, turning them into a rather shiny note in the ledger of emerging markets.

“The IMF may take issue with disbursements potentially being used to add Bitcoin. Bitcoin being down also doesn’t help to ease investors’ concerns,” Christopher Mejia, an EM sovereign analyst at T Rowe Price, told Bloomberg.

The IMF approved a 40-month Extended Fund Facility on February 26, 2025, unlocking about $1.4 billion in total, according to official IMF documentation. The first review ended in June 2025, with $231 million disbursed.

However, the second review has remained on hold since September, following the government’s delay in publishing a pension system analysis. During that period, El Salvador continued to add to its Bitcoin reserves despite repeated warnings from the IMF.

A third review is scheduled for March, with each review tied to additional loan disbursements.

“The continued purchase of Bitcoin, in our view, does create some potential challenges for the IMF reviews. The market would react quite poorly if the anchor provided by the IMF were no longer present.” Jared Lou, who helps manage the William Blair Emerging Markets Debt Fund, said.

Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling rising concern over El Salvador’s fiscal outlook. Credit default swaps have climbed to a five-month high, reflecting increasing investor anxiety about the country’s repayment capacity.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, El Salvador faces $450 million in bond payments this year, with obligations increasing to nearly $700 million next year.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy now sits alongside key fiscal and IMF negotiations. The outcome of upcoming IMF reviews and the country’s bond repayment schedule will play a significant role in shaping investor confidence and the sustainability of its debt trajectory.

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2026-02-13 09:06