Why China is Winning the Iran War While America is Just Trying to Find Its Glasses

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So here we are, three weeks into a conflict that was supposed to last about ten days. I mean, what’s next? A reality show about it? The United States finds itself in a costly game of tug-of-war with Iran, and let me tell you, the rope is fraying. Energy markets are spinning like they just got off a merry-go-round, and there’s no exit strategy in sight-unless you count running away screaming. But while Washington is busy figuring out how to pay the bills, China is over there, quietly reaping the rewards like a cat who knocked over a potted plant and is now taking a nap in the dirt.

In a recent tête-à-tête with BeInCrypto, Oxford’s very own Richard Heydarian gave us the scoop on how this whole mess benefits China. Spoiler alert: it involves emptying American weapons stockpiles and speeding up the de-dollarization train. Choo choo!

China’s Rivals: The Real Winners in the Sad War Games

At first glance, it seems like China is taking its fair share of economic hits. After all, it is the world’s largest manufacturer and the second-largest economy. They’re basically the big kid on the playground. But don’t get too cozy-while China’s feeling the pinch from skyrocketing oil prices, it’s still way better off than its pals in the West.

Unlike those Western nations who’ve frozen their phone lines to Tehran like awkward high schoolers at prom, China is having regular chats with Iran. You know, just casual conversations while everyone else stands around pretending not to notice.

“America’s buddies like Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea are really feeling the heat. And guess what? They have zero leverage over Iran,” Heydarian spilled during his podcast debut. You can almost hear the sympathy violin playing for them.

These countries are far more energy-dependent than China, which means the economic fallout is hitting Washington’s friends harder than a toddler throwing a tantrum in the cereal aisle.

BREAKING: The Philippines has declared a state of national energy emergency due to a severe shortage of oil amid the Iran War.

Details include:

1. The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from the Gulf, with gas prices up over +100% since February 28th.

2. The government is also…

– The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 25, 2026

And if the U.S. decides to throw a tantrum and penalize China over its oil trade with Iran, well, Beijing has a hefty counter up its sleeve.

“Guess which country controls a lot of critical rare earth minerals? China,” Heydarian said, as if revealing the plot twist in a rom-com.

But wait, there’s more! China’s advantage isn’t just in energy; it goes right down to the currency being used in those oil transactions.

The Petrodollar: Getting the Boot

Since the war kicked off, Iran has reportedly decided that oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only for yuan-denominated payments. Talk about a VIP list! This isn’t just a minor detail; it’s like getting invited to the exclusive club that nobody else knew existed.

Expanding yuan usage in global energy markets has been China’s long-term goal-like your friend who spent years training for a marathon, only to realize the route was rerouted because of an unexpected construction project. Well, the Iran war gave China a shortcut.

“The Iranians only allow apparently ships that are renminbi-based, yuan-based oil transactions. Basically, this war allowed the Iranians to impose a Persian hegemony in that area and then basically make even China have to play by their rules,” Heydarian explained, sounding like he was narrating a dramatic documentary.

It’s important to note that Iran isn’t just China’s puppet; they’re asserting their own dominance here. But regardless of intentions, Beijing is sipping on the sweet tea of opportunity.

END OF THE PETRODOLLAR

Iran is likely to make the Chinese Yuan the basis for payments of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

20 countries have expressed willingness to “align with this framework”.

– ADAM (@AdameMedia) March 22, 2026

Meanwhile, the broader implications for the dollar are enough to make economists spill their morning coffee. The petrodollar system-basically America’s golden ticket-has been the backbone of U.S. financial might. And every yuan transaction that pushes aside a dollar one? That’s like slowly but surely knocking down a Jenga tower.

The dollar isn’t the only thing crumbling in this drama.

Beijing’s Free Military Intelligence Program

While Iran and the U.S. swap strikes like it’s a game of dodgeball, Beijing is conducting some serious espionage-without even breaking a sweat.

Heydarian argues that China is carefully monitoring how Iranian missiles stack up against U.S. and NATO defense systems in real time. They’re taking notes like it’s an intense lecture on “How to Win Friends and Influence Global Wars.”

“With the Chinese, they’re really carefully studying the effectiveness of Iranian missiles. They can produce the same missiles on even a larger scale and even more sophistication,” he explained, probably while adjusting his glasses.

What Iran is effectively doing is stress-testing U.S. defense architecture on America’s dime-because nothing says “thank you” like free military intelligence.

The implications for the Indo-Pacific? Let’s just say they’re significant. American allies have long believed their defense systems were the best thing since sliced bread, but what’s happening over the Persian Gulf is making them rethink their sandwich.

“If you’re now the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, among others, you have to carefully watch what’s going on here because we’re seeing many of the much-vaunted NATO weapon systems. The interceptors are apparently not as gold standard or not the magic bullet that we thought they were,” Heydarian cautioned, probably while preparing a PowerPoint presentation.

This is like a free upgrade to military intelligence, courtesy of Iran and paid for by America’s dwindling arsenal.

The Arsenal America Can’t Just Order on Prime

Heydarian points out that the weapons being used in this shindig aren’t exactly easy to replace. Tomahawk missiles, THAAD interceptors, and other fancy gadgets rely on supply chains that take longer than a Netflix binge-watching session to rebuild. This replenishment problem could be one of the most serious-and overlooked-strategic costs of this war.

“These [weapons] are not something you can order over Amazon,” Heydarian noted, and I’m pretty sure the delivery driver wouldn’t appreciate it either.

And here’s the kicker: none of these weapons can be built without rare earth minerals, and guess who controls the majority? That’s right-China! So when Washington finally decides to rebuild its arsenal, it’s going to have to knock on the very door of the country it’s gearing up to fight.

“One of the craziest things we’re seeing is that you’re going to rely on China to replenish the weapons that you will end up using against China one day if China decides to do something kinetic in the Taiwan Strait or in the Philippines or against Japan,” he concluded, probably shaking his head in disbelief.

Whether this war wraps up in a couple weeks or drags on for months, the strategic ground China has gained will be harder to recover than your favorite pair of lost socks. Good luck with that, America!

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2026-03-27 00:27