Trump, Bitcoin, and the Great Hormuz Mystery: What Could Go Wrong?

Markets

What to know:

In a remarkable turn of events, Bitcoin has decided it prefers staying above $67,500 rather than plunging into the abyss below $65,200. Meanwhile, altcoins are doing their best impersonation of a sinking ship, down 3-8% this week as March decides to exit stage left with a flourish.
In other news, according to sources that may or may not have been snatched from the nearest gossip column, Trump is reportedly willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is still playing hard to get, equity futures are soaring higher than a cat on a hot tin roof, while oil appears to be taking a leisurely stroll downward.
The S&P 500 is currently on its longest losing streak since 2022. In fact, MSCI Asia Pacific is having such a bad time that it’s tracking its worst month since the dark days of October 2008, which makes crypto’s little sideways shimmy look like a graceful ballet encore.

So, Trump might just be ready to throw in the towel on the Iran war, but the markets are still scratching their heads, wondering what exactly that could mean for them.

Bitcoin flirted with a price of $67,545 on Tuesday morning, maintaining a flatline over the last 24 hours after a brief excursion below $65,200-its lowest level since the war began in late February. Ether is holding above $2,000 at $2,062, up a cheeky 0.4% on the day. Meanwhile, Solana’s SOL took a minor tumble (0.9% to $83.07), XRP dropped down to $1.32 (down 2.2%), and dogecoin, ever the underdog, slid to $0.09 with a 2.1% loss. SOL and XRP are leading the weekly casualty list across the top 10, with losses of 8% and 6.4%, respectively.

According to reports that sound suspiciously like they were pulled from a crystal ball, Trump and his aides have concluded that opening the Strait of Hormuz might delay the conflict beyond his preferred timeline of four to six weeks. Apparently, the President is quite prepared to end the military campaign regardless of whether the strait remains a no-go zone.

S&P 500 futures responded positively, climbing 0.8% upon hearing this fantastical news. WTI crude, however, had a little tantrum before settling near $103 after Iran decided it was a good idea to take a potshot at a Kuwaiti crude oil carrier in Dubai earlier that same day.

This whipsaw action capped off what can only be described as a brutal stretch for traditional markets. The S&P 500 is now on its longest daily losing streak since 2022, while MSCI Asia Pacific’s performance this month could make even a stoic statue weep. Treasuries are gaining ground, and the dollar is stumbling against most G10 currencies, which is precisely how currency dances tend to go these days.

Amidst this chaos, crypto has managed to keep its composure, standing out like a flamboyant peacock at a penguin party. The total crypto market cap is hovering around $2.32 trillion-remarkably unchanged over the past week, while the Nasdaq 100 decided to take a nosedive of about 5%. Bitcoin has been playing a game of limbo, trading between $65,000 and $73,000 throughout the entire war, selling off at every escalation but firmly refusing to drop lower structurally, even as equities tumble headlong into a downtrend.

“Crypto has pulled back, but appears stronger than stocks,” proclaimed Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, sounding remarkably calm amid the storm. “Although the cryptocurrency market remains below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, it is finding support on dips to the lows seen since early February, demonstrating horizontal stabilization following the slump, while equities are forming a downtrend.” This might be code for “at least we’re not on fire.”

In a thrilling twist worthy of a soap opera, JPMorgan noted on Monday that bitcoin is weathering the Iranian crisis better than gold and silver. Imagine that! Gold is having what could only be described as an unprecedented losing streak during an active war, while the asset usually labeled as ‘volatile’ holds its ground like a seasoned warrior. What a world!

The burning question as we saunter into April is: what does a potential end to this conflict actually mean for crypto? A ceasefire could mean the end of the headline risk that has kept bitcoin trapped in its range, but even if Hormuz remains closed post-U.S. withdrawal, oil prices may stay elevated, keeping inflation expectations stickier than a particularly stubborn piece of gum.

Monday’s little dip below $65,200 followed by a rapid recovery above $67,000 looked like a classic stop-hunt that stumbled upon real demand lurking beneath. Whether that demand holds through April relies heavily on whether Trump’s willingness to end the war morphs into a tangible off-ramp or simply turns out to be another headline in a month overflowing with them.

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2026-03-31 08:47