Can Silver Price Ride the Ceasefire Wave Past $100? A Falling Dollar Opens the Door

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So, here we are, with silver trading at $77.31 on April 8, forming some sort of “cup pattern” on the 12-hour chart-because apparently, that’s a thing now. Apparently, it has a 32% breakout projection that’s supposed to put silver in triple digits. Sure, why not? The world’s crazy enough, right?

Oh, and the US-Iran ceasefire? That little gem crashed Brent crude 15%, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) down by 1.63%. The good news here, if you’re into silver, is that a weaker dollar typically means silver gets cheaper for foreign buyers. Which, of course, could lead to a confirmed breakout-if everything aligns, like the stars or some other mystical nonsense.

Silver Price Builds a Cup as RSI Shapes the Handle

So, silver’s been busy forming this cup pattern since mid-March. How charming. The bottom is “rounded” (I don’t know, I’m not a graphic designer), and now there’s a bounce completing the supposed cup. But wait-there’s more! Now we need the handle, and a pullback from $77.73 suggests we might get that. If you’re into that sort of thing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI)-which, I’ll remind you, measures the speed of price changes-thinks we might see the handle forming too. From March 9 to April 7, silver made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. So, you know, there’s this hidden bearish divergence happening. Don’t ask me what that means. It’s like silver’s having an existential crisis.

Now, if this handle pulls back too much, it doesn’t invalidate the cup pattern. Handles can pull back, I hear. But how deep? That’s the million-dollar question. Well, the price of silver, anyway.

Futures Contango Shows No Delivery Urgency Yet

Let’s talk about contango for a second. Yes, contango. It’s a fancy way of saying that the silver futures market is, uh, not exactly scrambling for immediate delivery. The spread between the front-month and second-month silver futures is -0.55. So, not urgent. In fact, it’s not even close to being urgent.

Back in February, when silver was surging and everyone was clutching their physical silver like it was the last pack of toilet paper, the spread was at 7.875. Now, it’s negative. Make of that what you will. This tells us that the silver price movement might just be driven by macro positioning rather than people running around panicking to get their hands on physical silver. Could be. Could be.

Contango doesn’t mean a rally’s dead, but it does suggest the rally is more about positioning and less about some impending silver shortage. For a real breakout, this spread would have to tighten up-basically, people need to start acting like they actually want silver.

But, uh, let’s not forget, the macro landscape is shifting fast. So there’s that.

Falling Dollar and Shrinking Put-Call Ratio Fuel the Bullish Case

Thanks to the ceasefire, we’re seeing an immediate repricing across commodities. Oil’s down 15%. And when oil falls, that messes with the whole petrodollar thing, making the dollar weaker. Less demand for dollars, and suddenly, silver’s looking a lot cheaper for everyone who isn’t holding greenbacks. Silver, everybody’s new favorite currency!

The DXY is down 1.63% from April 6. Now it’s sitting at 98.69, right on the 0.382 technical support level. If this breaks, who knows? Maybe we’ll get more of a free fall, and silver’s price could really start to look tempting for those holding other currencies.

And don’t think the options market is missing out on this either. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) put-call ratio, which tracks bearish vs bullish options, dropped like a hot potato from 0.67 on April 6 to 0.47 on April 7. If you’re keeping track, that’s less bearishness and more people betting on silver to go up. Makes sense. If you’re not betting on silver now, what are you even doing?

With the dollar tanking, oil crashing, and the options crowd going bullish, I guess it’s safe to say the silver chart could be the final judge here. No pressure, silver chart. No pressure.

Silver Price Levels That Determine if $100 Is Reachable

So, silver is at $77.31. The “cup’s neckline” (whatever that means) is at $77.29 to $77.73. If it closes above $77.73, then congratulations, we’ve got a breakout. If it doesn’t, well, we’re still waiting for this thing to form up.

If it closes above $79.12, we’re really in business. That’s the first big confirmation. $85.07 is next. And if silver keeps pushing, we could see $94.69 or even $102.29 (yes, $100+). This is the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Unless, of course, the rally stalls. Then, we’ll all just wait for the next silver drama.

But here’s the catch: to get that sweet $100, the dollar has to keep weakening. And the futures contango? Yeah, it needs to tighten up, too. Without both, we’ll probably stall at $85. Nice try, though.

Of course, if the ceasefire falls apart or the dollar bounces back, the whole cup pattern could be a bust. RSI’s already giving us that warning. But hey, who’s keeping track? Silver, am I right?

On the downside, $75.45 is the first handle support. If it drops deeper, we might be looking at $73.18, or if it really wants to go full drama, $69.51. If it drops below $60.88, well, that’s it. Pattern invalidated. Let’s all go home.

Right now, $77.73 is the line in the sand. If it breaks that, we might be heading for $85.07 and beyond. If not, expect a handle deep dive into the $69.51 floor. Place your bets.

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2026-04-08 19:05