Arthur Hayes is now cautious about investments considered risky, suggesting a potential downturn in the stock market – possibly driven by artificial intelligence – could negatively impact cryptocurrencies before ultimately benefiting Bitcoin. In a recent essay published on June 9th, the co-founder of BitMEX explained that his firm, Maelstrom, has reduced its holdings in several cryptocurrencies, but continues to hold Bitcoin and Ether as key investments.
Hayes believes the key to understanding current market conditions lies in the tensions between the US and Iran, specifically regarding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. He suggests that rising oil prices could lead to inflation, limit the US government’s choices, and put pressure on the recent surge in investments towards Artificial Intelligence, which has been a primary focus for investors since late 2022.
According to Hayes, current events—starting with oil prices and potentially leading to political consequences—could trigger a collapse of both the AI stock market and the cryptocurrency market. He believes that only after this collapse can Bitcoin recover and potentially thrive.
Hayes Turns Bearish On Crypto And Risk Assets
Hayes argues that much of the investment money that usually goes into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has instead been directed towards Artificial Intelligence. While Bitcoin saw a significant increase, rising from around $15,000 after the FTX collapse to approximately $125,000 by October 2025, AI stocks, particularly Nvidia, performed even better – Nvidia’s stock increased tenfold during that same period. Since reaching its peak, Bitcoin has lost about half its value, but Nvidia’s stock is still up around 10%.
Hayes suggests this difference in financial trends shows where newly created money ended up. He calculates that companies working on artificial intelligence borrowed about $1.5 trillion since November 2022, which is the same amount that the overall money supply (M2) increased during that time. He also points out that $1.3 trillion of this AI-related borrowing happened from 2025 onwards, coinciding with a slowdown in Bitcoin’s price increase.
“AI sucked up all created dollars,” Hayes wrote. “Bitcoin never had a chance.”
Hayes believes AI advancements won’t instantly boost cryptocurrency prices. He anticipates a significant drop in AI stock values, which could harm bank lending, restrict credit availability, and wipe out investment funds before governments step in with financial support.
Bitcoin is unlikely to increase in price soon, given the potential for significant financial losses as the current excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) investments cools down. While the market will eventually recover and Bitcoin could benefit from a renewed flow of money, the immediate focus should be on safeguarding your existing cryptocurrency investments.
According to Hayes, several factors could cause the current excitement around AI to fade. These include increasing energy costs, a flood of new AI company stock offerings, and potentially, negative comments about AI from Donald Trump during the election season. He explains that higher prices for oil and gas directly increase the expenses of creating AI-related digital assets, reducing profits for companies like Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI. If AI usage slows down and expected profits decrease, investors might start to doubt whether it’s worth investing in the large data centers needed to power AI.
The upcoming IPOs of companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could put a strain on the market, potentially flooding it with a large number of shares at high prices. Hayes specifically points to SpaceX, noting that its initial public offering suggests investors would pay around 100 times the company’s sales, despite only a small percentage of shares being available at first. If SpaceX were to go public under these terms, it would instantly become one of the world’s most valuable companies, ranking seventh with a market value of $1.8 trillion, and the number of shares available could increase significantly within a few months.
Hayes doesn’t expect the Federal Reserve to quickly step in and support risky investments. He points out that the yield on two-year Treasury bonds being significantly higher than the federal funds rate suggests investors are anticipating further interest rate increases, not cuts, before the upcoming June meeting. He believes a decision to hold rates steady while maintaining a tough stance on inflation would likely put even more pressure on stocks in the artificial intelligence sector and cryptocurrencies.
The portfolio is already reacting to recent market changes. Hayes reported that Maelstrom has increased its investments in US energy companies listed on the stock market and sold off some of its less important cryptocurrency holdings. He specifically mentioned selling HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, and ZEC due to a problem with the Orchard Pool. He explained that while he didn’t want to sell ZEC, protecting his investment was more important than trying to make a profit.
Bitcoin and Ether are still holding value. While Arthur Hayes considers Ether to be struggling but still usable, he doesn’t plan to sell it right away. He anticipates Bitcoin might initially drop in price if the current excitement around artificial intelligence fades, but he believes it will recover strongly when the financial system needs another boost of cash.
At press time, BTC traded at $62,638.
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2026-06-10 05:34