Bitcoin (BTC) has beaten nearly all of the top 100 altcoins since 2020, and chart data now points to almost 50% more downside for the broad altcoin market.
The total value of all altcoins (excluding Bitcoin), currently around $864 billion, has fallen sharply this week. Here’s a look at two charts that suggest this downward trend might continue.
Bitcoin Beat the 2020 Top 100 Altcoins by a Wide Margin
The first chart indexes the 2020 top 100 coins to a value of 100. It prices Bitcoin in US dollars and each altcoin in Bitcoin terms.
Bitcoin’s value increased significantly, reaching 1,000 on a logarithmic scale. However, most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) sharply declined, dropping from 100 to 10, 1, or even lower. This created a large difference in value, with many previously popular altcoins losing 90% to 99% of their value compared to Bitcoin. Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) experienced the most dramatic fall in value of all.
How information is presented is important because it highlights what you give up by choosing one option over another. For over five years, holding most cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin resulted in lower returns than simply holding Bitcoin. The data also reveals that picking specific coins rarely led to better results – even popular projects often lost value when compared to Bitcoin’s performance.
I’ve been looking at some altcoins that initially showed promise, and while a handful have performed well right out of the gate, the overall picture tells a different story. For investors who passed on Bitcoin and opted for these alternatives, the long-term results generally show significant losses.
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin remains on a long-term upward trend. It’s currently trading around $61,228, which is a 2% decrease for today and a 44% drop over the last year. Other cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, have experienced even larger declines. Bitcoin has fallen about 24% in the past month, while Ethereum has lost approximately 31%.
Total Market Cap Points to $436 Billion by July
The second chart displays the total value of TOTAL2 each week, highlighting three peak points. The most recent peak reached $1.77 trillion.
In my research, I’ve identified two significant market declines for comparison. The first, in 2018, saw a 92% drop over roughly 49 weeks. More recently, from 2021 to 2022, the market fell 75% over a period of 31 weeks.
These projects typically take around 40 weeks to complete. Based on a recent 75% decrease from $1.77 trillion, analysts estimate the lowest value these projects will reach is approximately $436 billion.
Currently, TOTAL2 is valued at $864.73 billion, which is lower than the $942.62 billion it recently dropped below. It found support near $494.05 billion, preventing it from falling further than its previous low.
If the market drops to $436 billion, it would fall below a key support level and potentially hit a low last seen in 2022 at $427.57 billion. This scenario suggests prices could fall almost 50% from where they are now.
Based on current trends, we can expect a potential downturn around mid-July 2026, approximately 40 weeks after Bitcoin’s recent high. The main reason for this is that Bitcoin is gaining a larger share of the crypto market, causing investors to move funds away from other cryptocurrencies (altcoins).
Just because Bitcoin has behaved a certain way in the past doesn’t mean it will do so again. The success of new Bitcoin ETFs and overall economic factors could make any future price changes happen faster or be more extreme.
If the market were to consistently recover $942.62 billion each week, it would suggest the current downward trend might be ending. Until that happens, the market is likely to continue falling, and the anticipated rise of alternative cryptocurrencies (altseason) will probably be delayed.
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2026-06-11 01:42