Bitcoin’s recent price increase is continuing, boosted by news on Thursday that the US may have reached an end to the war with Iran – though Iran hasn’t officially confirmed the agreement. Now, the question is whether Bitcoin’s price can climb above $66,000, or if it will fall back down due to overall market pressure.
Price action traces out a bear pennant
Looking at the recent price chart for Bitcoin ($BTC), the current pattern is still developing. While it initially appeared to be a bear flag, it now resembles a bear pennant. Although the name has changed, the overall trend remains downward. The key benefit of this pennant pattern is that it suggests a timeframe for when the price will likely either rise or fall.
Looking at Bitcoin, this price pattern likely won’t play out completely. It’s probable that the price will fall below the $63,000 support level and then drop below the lower end of the triangle, especially if it fails to find support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average.
If buyers can push the price higher, it could lead to a continued increase, potentially reaching the $60,000s. A firm agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict could make this positive outcome more likely.
A drop to test and confirm the bear market trendline?
Even though the price has found support near $60,000 and is following an upward trendline, the overall pattern on the daily chart suggests prices are more likely to continue falling.
As an analyst, I’m watching the Stochastic RSI, and while it’s currently pointing upwards – suggesting prices might rise – a closer look reveals something different. On shorter-term charts, the indicator is actually reaching overbought levels, which typically means it’s about to reverse direction and move downwards.
While Bitcoin might not reach $44,000 as initially predicted by the ‘bear flag’ pattern, the formation of a bearish pennant now suggests that a decline towards the long-term downward trend line is likely.
$BTC price is sitting on huge support
Looking at a two-week timeframe and previous major drops, there’s a strong support level for Bitcoin between $60,000 and $63,400. Despite nearly 20 weeks of selling pressure, the price hasn’t actually closed below this range. This suggests very solid, reliable support.
The price of Bitcoin is currently being supported by an upward trendline, often called a bull market trendline, and so far, that support is holding.
The Stochastic RSI lines have recently crossed downwards, which could indicate a significant decrease in the potential for price increases. However, there’s still a little over a week left for the indicator to stabilize, so this isn’t a definite signal just yet.
Next week will likely give us a clearer idea of whether Bitcoin’s price is starting to stabilize or if it might fall further. If key support levels break, the price could drop to around $40,000, and potentially even as low as $30,000 before finding a bottom.
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2026-06-12 17:06