An indicator used to gauge long-term feelings about Bitcoin has reached a very negative level, which, according to analyst Joao Wedson, often happens just before the price stops falling and starts to recover.
He believes this market area, typically marked by strong pessimism and discouraged retail investors, presents an ideal opportunity for seasoned investors to begin buying.
Multi-Year Indicator Flashes Late-Stage Fear Signal
On April 7th, Wedson posted on X that the 720-day Trend Barrier Bull-Bear Indicator (TBBI) is showing a strongly negative signal. Historically, this has happened when money was leaving the market and sophisticated investors were starting to buy up available assets.
According to one analyst using Wyckoff methodology, the current market conditions resemble the final stages of a downturn – specifically, selling climaxes and shakeouts. They believe this isn’t the beginning of a major crash, but rather the completion of one.
In my analysis, while there’s still potential for the price to fall, I believe the extent of those drops will likely be limited from this point forward. We might see further decreases, but they’ll probably be less dramatic. I’m also watching for a possible ‘shakeout’ – a sudden drop of around $15,000 that could trigger one last burst of market panic.
He predicts that over the next few weeks, the general feeling about the market will remain negative. He expects the price of Bitcoin to either stay flat or decrease a little, which could create a sense of discouragement among investors.
Wedson believes a shift is coming soon. He anticipates becoming more optimistic about the market as others lose interest. He predicts this period of fear and disinterest will continue for at least five months, offering a good opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate more assets.
As a crypto investor, I’m seeing some signals that suggest the market might be a bit shaky right now. Glassnode is reporting that Bitcoin’s currently in a price range – between $65,000 and $70,000 – where dealer activity could actually *increase* price swings. They also point out that we’re hitting some resistance around $72,000, but there isn’t much support underneath, meaning a small dip could easily turn into a bigger drop. Basically, things feel a little fragile at the moment.
Bitcoin briefly surged past $70,000 following news about a possible ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, the price quickly dropped and was trading around $68,000, a nearly 2% decrease over the past 24 hours, at the time this was written.
Historical Drawdowns Suggest Milder Correction Than Past Cycles
Wedson is concerned about the negative outlook on Bitcoin, but analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s data suggests the price, currently around $67,675, is holding above a key level. This level, 1.25 times the realized price, often separates typical price dips from more significant downturns.
He believes that if the price bounces back quickly after briefly falling, it could steadily rise towards $92,038. But, if the price stays below $67,675, it’s more likely to fall further, potentially reaching between $54,000 and $58,000.
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2026-04-07 19:49