Are We Underestimating Wicked: For Good’s Best Picture Chances?

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The competition for the 2026 Best Picture Oscar is starting to become clear, and while it’s still too early to know exactly who will be nominated, a few films are already looking like strong contenders.

Several films entered the fall season with high expectations and a strong chance of success, but they’ll need to prove themselves. Hamnet ultimately stood out at the fall film festivals, while One Battle After Another bypassed the festivals altogether and gained early praise as one of the year’s best. Meanwhile, Marty Supreme unexpectedly premiered at the New York Film Festival, potentially making it a competitor to these frontrunners, even though it won’t be released until Christmas.

Beyond the frontrunners, many films are competing to be nominated, especially for Best Picture. However, some like Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire & Ash are seen as safe, almost guaranteed nominees. Their past awards success suggests they’ll likely secure a place among the top ten, boosted by nominations in other categories. Despite this, they aren’t considered serious contenders to actually win Best Picture.

I can’t help but feel that, in Wicked‘s case, we’re making a mistake.

Wicked: For Good’s Awards Positioning Is Better Than The First Movie’s, Not Worse

I get why some people might be hesitant about Wicked: Part Two. After seeing Part One, it feels like we already have a pretty good idea of what to expect, kind of like with Avatar. And yeah, there’s some truth to that. But honestly, I think that’s exactly why the second half of Jon M. Chu’s Wicked adaptation could be a real surprise contender for Best Picture in 2026 – a dark horse, if you will.

The first Wicked movie was a big success last year, despite some criticism. It was exactly the kind of hit Hollywood was hoping for, truly connecting with audiences. The film showcased the talents of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, and was praised for its traditional, high-quality production values – including real sets, detailed costumes, and large-scale musical performances.

Going into the Oscars, Wicked had ten nominations, including Best Picture, and a lot of positive buzz. Many thought the musical, with its powerful story about overcoming adversity and fighting against oppression, could resonate with Academy voters looking for a meaningful film in 2024. Ultimately, it didn’t win the big awards, but it did win two Oscars for Costume and Production Design, and it was definitely a strong contender.

Early reactions to Wicked: For Good are really good, though it’s always wise to be cautiously optimistic. It got me wondering: if the filmmakers successfully capture the same magic as the first movie, could that create similar excitement? And if it does, would it be accurate to say For Good is at a disadvantage compared to the original?

Historically, the Academy Awards tends to recognize complete film series at the very end. Unlike Dune, Wicked won’t surprise voters with talk of a third movie before the awards campaign is over. The film’s strong ties to The Wizard of Oz are expected to resonate even more with voters this time around. Director Chu is likely to be more creative with the story in the second half of the film, and has already added two new songs for the main characters.

Because both parts of the film were shot at the same time, the creators can now refine the visual effects if they choose, responding to any earlier concerns. Plus, the VFX team has had an additional year to polish their work, which should help avoid the rushed CGI that sometimes appears in finished films.

As a critic, I’ve been watching the buzz around Wicked, and it’s clear the current political climate is playing a big role in its appeal. What’s even more fascinating is that this film leans hard into that connection. Forget subtle allegory – Elphaba isn’t just misunderstood, she’s actively rebelling against the Wizard’s oppressive government for the entire movie. It’s a full-on resistance story, and frankly, it feels incredibly timely.

There are many strong contenders for Best Picture this year, and it’s not far-fetched to think Wicked: For Good could be a major player. It’s possible the film could receive numerous nominations and appeal to many different members of the Academy. It might even succeed despite strong competition from other films – and potentially avoid any negative fallout from those campaigns – by simply offering a positive and uplifting experience that voters enjoy.

Even if it seems unlikely as the season goes on, I still believe Wicked: For Good is a strong contender and shouldn’t be overlooked. If the show lives up to expectations, it could win more than just two awards this year.

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2025-10-29 00:49