Avatar: Fire and Ash Poised for Massive $100M China Opening

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The new Avatar movie, Fire and Ash, is expected to be a huge success in China. This release could signal a thaw in the often-strained relationship between the American and Chinese film industries, potentially starting a new chapter of cooperation.

Avatar: Fire and Ash is predicted to have a massive opening weekend in China, potentially earning between $90 and $100 million. This would make it the third-highest-grossing Hollywood film to open in China since the pandemic began!

Chinese just can’t resist Cameron’s Pandora!

— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOff) December 8, 2025

The social media account Global Box Office reports that James Cameron’s new film is expected to earn between $90 and $100 million during its opening weekend in China. If accurate, this would make it the third-highest opening weekend for an American movie in China since 2020.

Although it’s unlikely to surpass this year’s Zootopia 2 (also from Disney), Fire and Ash is predicted to earn more than twice as much on its opening weekend as the original Avatar: Way of Water did in the same area.

The Tracking

Global Box Office is predicting strong ticket sales for Fire and Ash based on data from Maoyan, a popular Chinese movie platform. Currently, nearly 1 million people on Maoyan have indicated they want to see the film, making it only the second U.S. movie this year – after Zootopia 2 – to reach that level of interest on the platform.

According to Deadline, Zootopia 2 had 2.3 million views on the Maoyan platform just two days before its release. Currently, the new film Fire and Ash isn’t generating quite the same level of excitement, but it’s still expected to perform well at the box office.

China Box Office: ‘Zootopia 2’ Opens With Massive $272 Million, Biggest Hollywood Haul in Years

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) December 1, 2025

The new movie Zootopia 2 earned an impressive $272 million in China over its first five days. Before the release, Deadline estimated it, along with Fire and Ash, might earn between $125 and $150 million. The fact that Zootopia 2 far exceeded these predictions shows that China is an unpredictable, but potentially lucrative, market that Hollywood is paying attention to again.

But one thing few do is bet against James Cameron.

The Release

According to the Global Times, James Cameron met with Feng Fei, the top official of Hainan Province, on Monday. The Hainan Daily reported that Cameron acknowledged China’s position as the world’s biggest film market and praised the rapid growth of its film industry. Cameron also stated he hopes his participation in the Hainan International Film Festival will help strengthen connections and collaboration with Chinese filmmakers.

Cameron will attend the Shanghai premiere of Fire and Ash on December 18th. The film will be shown using CINITY, a cutting-edge film projection system developed and exclusively owned by China Film Group.

The new Avatar film, “Avatar: The Fire and Ash,” will have its Chinese premiere at the 7th Hainan Island International Film Festival. Director James Cameron, known for creating the Avatar series, is scheduled to be there in person. The film will also benefit from the advanced technology of CINITY.

— GoSanya (@GoSanyaOfficial) October 9, 2025

In a recent video, director James Cameron shared his enthusiasm for the CINITY format, explaining that it offers exceptional brightness, supports high frame rates, and delivers a wider range of colors, making it a truly superior viewing experience. He believes the Avatar films are especially well-suited to this format.

The film Fire and Ash will be shown in IMAX theaters throughout China. It will open at the same time in both the U.S. and China on December 19th.

The Revenue Split

As a movie lover, it’s always fascinating to look at where the money comes from, and with big releases like Fire and Ash, China is a huge part of that. But here’s the thing: US studios don’t get to keep the lion’s share of ticket sales there. The current system means they only receive about 25% of the box office revenue. So, even if Fire and Ash does incredibly well in China – which it looks like it will – most of that profit won’t actually end up at Disney.

Cameron has a unique contract for the Avatar movies, established before Disney bought 20th Century Fox. Because of the deal’s structure – a percentage of the total earnings – he receives payment much sooner in the financial reporting process.

Even after accounting for China’s portion and the agreement with Cameron, any remaining revenue will be welcome after a very difficult year. Plus, the consecutive hits of Zootopia 2 and Fire and Ash are changing how the studio plans and promotes its future films.

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2025-12-13 19:58