Betting against Ethereum ETF: How a May rejection could benefit Bitcoin

Based on current trends, it seems likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will reject applications for a US-listed spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in May.

Based on data from the prediction market platform, Polymarket, the probability of Ethereum ETF being approved by May has decreased by 68%. At the current moment, the likelihood is estimated to be at approximately 24%.

Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two analysts at Bloomberg who accurately forecasted the approval of a US Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF, share Polymarket’s viewpoint on the matter.

In a recent article on X, Seyffart described the SEC’s lack of response to recent ETH ETF applications as a “harsh treatment” or “unresponsiveness” towards clients.

Last week during a discussion about Ethereum ETFs on a client call, Eric remarked, “Silence equals Violence.” I found this perspective really thought-provoking.

During Balchunas’ declaration that the SEC hadn’t provided “significant criticism” even in face-to-face sessions, Seyffart responded. This implied that the likelihood of SEC’s approval in May was still quite slim.

Will BTC benefit from Ethereum ETF May rejection?

As May draws nearer, and with approval appearing increasingly uncertain, Vijay Boyapati, a well-known commentator and writer of “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin,” asserted that,

“The influx of heated investment into Ethereum due to Ethereum ETF expectations will likely return to Bitcoin once all proposed Ethereum ETFs get rejected.”

To match Boyapati’s forecast, the Ethereum (ETH) market share must significantly decrease while Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a notable rise.

At the present moment, based on CoinMarketCap’s data, Bitcoin accounted for about 52.4% of the total cryptocurrency market share. The primary reason behind this was robust Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investments in the previous quarter. As for Ethereum, its market dominance amounted to 16.5%.

If Boyapati’s theory holds true, the Ethereum (ETH) market share might decrease below 16% or 15%, as the market readjusts following the rejection of the ETH ETF in May. Consequently, this capital shift could potentially boost Bitcoin’s (BTC) price momentum.

During this period, Ethereum (ETH) hovered above a significant weekly resistance level (around 3.2K-3.5K). It was trading sideways near its Q1 2022 peak. A drop below the 3.2K mark could potentially lead to heavy selling by bears, especially if ETH Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) applications are denied.

2024-04-09 15:35

Will BTC benefit from Ethereum ETF May rejection?

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