Bitcoin – $75K or $55K? Here’s where BTC will go next

  • Bitcoin formed a smaller range within the range.
  • Bullish conviction has weakened considerably, and selling pressure could soon dominate.

Bitcoin has been trading between $73k and $60.7k recently, forming a smaller range. Bullish conviction has weakened significantly, and selling pressure may take over soon. In my earlier analysis for AMBCrypto, I mentioned that bulls needed to defend the $64.5k support level to push above the $66k resistance. However, we didn’t see this occur, instead, Bitcoin dropped to $62.8k. This happened as whale activity and ETF inflows started to slow down.

Bitcoin [BTC] continued to trade between $73k and $60.7k, forming a range.

As a crypto investor, I’ve taken note of an earlier analysis by AMBCrypto where they identified two crucial price levels for Bitcoin: a supportive zone at $64,500 and a resistant level at $66,000. To see further gains, bulls must successfully defend the $64,500 mark in order to break through and conquer the $66,000 resistance.

At $67,000, an event unfolded that wasn’t the occurrence we anticipated; instead, there was a decline to $62,800. This turn of events transpired when the pace of whale transactions and ETF investments were both on the wane.

Therefore, an argument for continued short-term consolidation was valid.

The larger-picture metrics that fueled BTC growth have declined

As a researcher studying cryptocurrency market trends, I came across a recent observation made by Whale Panda on their X platform (previously known as Twitter). They reported that for three successive days leading up to the 26th of April, Bitcoin ETF flows showed a negative trend.

For the past three consecutive days, Blackrock’s ETF IBIT has experienced no new investments, following significant inflows it received earlier in the month.

Bitcoin – $75K or $55K? Here’s where BTC will go next

Here, a noticeable decrease in demand is evident. specifically, the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) experienced regular outflows, with ARKB following suit on the 25th of April.

This was a reflection of the lack of bullish conviction after the halving.

Bitcoin – $75K or $55K? Here’s where BTC will go next

As a crypto analyst, I’ve noticed an intriguing development: the number of large transactions, or “whale” transactions, has decreased significantly since mid-March.

The price of Bitcoin also lost its higher timeframe bullish impetus during the past month.

What do the futures markets reveal about Bitcoin market sentiment?

Bitcoin – $75K or $55K? Here’s where BTC will go next

Since April 10th, the Open Interest in Bitcoin has been declining. This trend occurred concurrently with the decrease in Bitcoin’s price from over $70,000 to around $60,000, revealing a bearish market outlook. Speculators have shown reluctance to take long positions during this time.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the funding rate, which had been quite profitable for me in March, dropped to only slightly positive numbers in April. This shift indicates a decrease in speculative activity and uncertainty within the market.

From March 20th to April 10th, the price of CVD (Cardiovascular Disease) in the spot market experienced an upward trend. As a result, buyers were active during this period, providing impetus for the price to attempt climbing above $70k.

Over the past three weeks, Bitcoin has consistently declined, making it probable that we would observe further decreases or minimal fluctuations in its value.

Bitcoin – $75K or $55K? Here’s where BTC will go next

In simpler terms, a brief price fluctuation of Bitcoin occurred, ranging from approximately $59,700 to $66,900 (indicated by the purple section). This price swing took place within the broader trading band of $60,000 to $73,000 that Bitcoin was already moving within.

Over the past weekend, the midpoint price of $63,300 was surpassed, and there’s a possibility for a further decline down to $60,000 by the end of this week.

On the six-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell beneath the 50-neutral mark, hinting at downward price momentum. With insufficient buying pressure observed, a potential drop seemed imminent.

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2024-04-29 04:07