Bitcoin: As retail finally shows up, is it time for BTC to finally hit $100K?

Retail investor demand for Bitcoin has surged to its highest level since 2020, boosting market optimism.
Rising institutional interest suggested a potential push toward the $100K psychological level.

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous market cycles and trends. The current surge in Bitcoin demand, driven by both retail and institutional investors, is reminiscent of the bull runs we saw back in 2017.

Last week, Bitcoin [BTC] seemed to be slowly picking up speed again following a phase of almost no price fluctuation.

In the last 24 hours, the value of the cryptocurrency has risen by 1.3%, currently sitting at $96,714 per unit as I’m typing this.

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has elevated its total market value to an impressive $1.915 trillion, with a 24-hour trading activity amounting to approximately $92.1 billion.

These signs point to a significant market influence, as the asset nears a psychologically important level of $100,000.

Amid this price performance, new data highlighted increasing retail investor interest in Bitcoin.

Based on the analysis by CryptoQuant’s expert, Darkfost, the shift in Bitcoin’s 30-day retail interest over the past month has peaked at its maximum point since the year 2020.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that this recent surge in the market is largely due to increased retail involvement. This usually indicates a higher level of market enthusiasm and engagement among individual investors like myself.

Historically, retail shopping sprees have often occurred before local price peaks, yet they also indicate a wider enthusiasm that might sustain growth when paired with institutional investments. In simpler terms, an increase in retail activity can sometimes signal a market peak, but it may also show growing consumer interest which, coupled with institutional investment, could lead to continued expansion.

Retail demand and key market indicators

The surge in retail interest coincided with Bitcoin entering a sideways trading phase.

Darkfost pointed out that even though retail interest might decrease during this phase of sideways trading, a surge beyond the $100,000 resistance point could revive retail excitement.

Such a move might trigger a euphoric phase in the market, creating strong positive momentum.

Yet, he emphasized the importance of maintaining a careful equilibrium between retail and institutional involvement, as institutional investment offers lasting market stability.

Currently, data obtained from Coinglass indicates that the Open Interest for Bitcoin grew by 1.66% prior to dropping by 1.77%. At the present moment, its value stands at approximately $78.46 billion.

At the moment of this writing, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a significant metric monitored by Glassnode, stood at 1.02. In simpler terms, the SOPR determines if Bitcoin owners are currently realizing a profit or incurring a loss when they sell.

In general terms, when the SOPR (Spend Output Profit Ratio) is greater than 1, it usually means investors are selling coins at a profit, which can indicate a bullish market trend. However, if the difference above 1 isn’t too significant, it suggests more of a period where prices stabilize rather than a major surge or rally.

Outlook for Bitcoin as $100K approaches

With retail interest in buying Bitcoins on the rise, there’s a growing buzz about whether it could potentially surpass the $100,000 mark in the near future.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024–2025

It’s worth noting that earlier findings from AMBCrypto indicated a relatively low retail involvement, given that the Korea Premium Index stayed under -0.5, suggesting a trend where the Korean market price was lower than global prices.

Based on my personal experience as a long-time investor and cryptocurrency enthusiast, I have learned that the market for Bitcoin can be quite unpredictable and sensitive to various factors, including retail activity. Earlier this year, I observed a significant price surge in Bitcoin, but at that time, retail interest was not a major driving force behind it. However, as I’ve seen in the past, the market can change rapidly, and now that retail interest is on the rise, I believe we could witness another shift in the market dynamics. This trend might pave the way for Bitcoin to reach its next milestone, and I will be closely watching the situation to see how it unfolds.

2024-12-04 17:44

Retail demand and key market indicators

Outlook for Bitcoin as $100K approaches

Read More