Bitcoin: Assessing LTH vs. STH trends as BTC trades at $57K

    BTC long-term investors accumulated over 21,000 BTC.
    Long and short-term investors are holding at a loss. 

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed countless cycles of bull and bear runs, and this latest chapter with Bitcoin is no exception.


Over the past three months, numerous short-term Bitcoin [BTC] investors have adjusted their approach due to the coin’s unpredictable price fluctuations. As a result, a significant number of them have decided to cash out their holdings.

Instead, it’s worth noting that during this timeframe, investors with a long-term perspective have been steadily adding more Bitcoin to their portfolios, indicating faith in its future value.

Over time, the buildup by long-term investors has served as a counterweight to market fluctuations caused by quick-selling short-term investors. This has generally kept the market stable and balanced.

Bitcoin loses almost 10%

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis over a daily period, Bitcoin had declined by almost 10% from July up until the present moment.

Starting from June 1st, Bitcoin’s trading value has seen its fair share of ups and downs, reaching as high as approximately $62,830 initially, but subsequently experiencing various price swings in either direction.

In this span, the price peaked at roughly $65,000, and dipped down to nearly $53,800 as the lowest point.

Currently, Bitcoin is being exchanged for approximately $57,340, demonstrating a minimal rise of almost 1% during the present trading session.

Bitcoin: Assessing LTH vs. STH trends as BTC trades at $57K

Over this time frame, there have been notable changes in both long-term and short-term positions.

In times of market turbulence, short-term investors often choose to decrease their Bitcoin investments, whereas long-term investors tend to boost their stockpile instead.

Long vs. short Bitcoin investors

The analysis by AMBCrypto on fluctuations in Bitcoin’s short-term and long-term investors’ collective position over the last quarter reveals a significant divergence in their actions.

According to the short-term chart analysis, there was a shift from a positive trend to a negative one approximately on June 1st. Following this change, the negative trajectory strengthened further.

Based on the latest available figures, it was sitting at a level of -21,000, suggesting that numerous short-term investors were choosing to leave the market.

Bitcoin: Assessing LTH vs. STH trends as BTC trades at $57K

Starting in July, long-term investors have been shifting their positions positively. This trend has persisted, with the latest data indicating an accumulated increase of more than 22,000.

It’s clear that while short-term investors are dumping and leaving Bitcoin, long-term investors are not only holding on but also increasing their ownership of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: Assessing LTH vs. STH trends as BTC trades at $57K

During this timeframe, changes in behavior seemed to align with the unpredictable fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. As the price swayed up and down, short-term investors, who were primarily focused on immediate price swings, tended to sell off to minimize potential losses.

At the same time, long-term investors viewed the price fluctuations as a chance to buy Bitcoin at reduced costs.

Long and short holders remain at a loss

As I delved into the analysis of Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio over 90-day and 180-day periods, it became evident that long-term holders find themselves in a situation where they are currently experiencing a loss.

Over the past 90 days, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has been roughly -5.80%, indicating that individuals who bought Bitcoin within the last three months have seen a drop of about 5% in the worth of their investments.

Additionally, the 180-day MVRM (Market Value Realized to Market Value Ratio) stood at approximately -9.2%. This suggests that these investors have experienced a loss of about 9% on their investments.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

The low MVRV values indicated that Bitcoin might be underpriced, as both short-term and long-term investors were incurring losses. Typically, these MVRV levels have pointed towards a potential market turnaround in the past.

Since these long-term investors boosted their investments during the slump, they are expected to reap greater returns as the market recovers.

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2024-09-10 16:40