- BTC has remained below $60K for over a week.
Glassnode founders suggested that US CPI data could set the next direction.
As a researcher with a background in finance and experience in following Bitcoin markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the recent developments in the cryptocurrency space. The past week has seen Bitcoin [BTC] struggle to hold above $60,000, with bears taking control of the market due to sell-offs from the US and Mt. Gox. However, there are signs that this trend could change soon.
Over the past week, Bitcoin‘s price has stayed under the $60,000 mark and experienced a 7% decrease during the third quarter, according to recent reports. The primary causes behind this decline have been the selling actions from governments and Mt. Gox. These sell-offs have given traders bearing market positions added strength.
According to a market analyst, the selling pressure from Bitcoin bearish investors may soon lessen due to potential easing of resistance from the German government.
If a large proportion of Gox sellers don’t rapidly join the bear camp, then the bears may be facing a difficult situation with their positions.
Bullish catalysts for Bitcoin
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve come across some compelling reasons suggested by an anonymous analyst for the potential upward trend of Bitcoin (BTC). Among these bullish catalysts are the increasing global liquidity and the anticipated absorption of the remaining German government’s Bitcoin holdings within the upcoming week.
The German government has only begun selling approximately $3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past three weeks. More than half of this amount has already been disposed of, and it’s predicted that they will finish selling it within a week at the current rate.
Based on Arkham Intelligence’s records, the German authorities transferred approximately $60 million in Bitcoin to central exchanges last Thursday. As a result, they now possess around 13,100 BTC, equivalent to over $767 million.
The anticipated $16 billion payout from FTX, scheduled for the final quarter of 2024 in cash, could potentially boost Bitcoin’s liquidity and that of the wider market, as suggested by some analysts.
As a crypto investor, I can tell you that according to another analyst, Miles Deutscher, the upcoming U.S. presidential election results, specifically a Trump win, present a significant opportunity for long-term investments in the cryptocurrency market. The reasons behind this viewpoint include various catalysts that could positively impact the industry, making it an enticing prospect for those looking to invest for the long haul.
Yet, according to MarketObserver MartyParty, Trump’s victory might not significantly affect Bitcoin markets due to the ongoing efforts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to regulate spot Bitcoin transactions.
Should the CFTC be given broader regulatory powers, it is probable that any business dealing with Bitcoin would need to register with the federal administration and implement rigorous KYC/AML procedures. This mandate would not merely apply to exchanges, but also encompass any organization interacting with the cryptocurrency in its original form.
What’s next for Bitcoin price?
Currently, Bitcoin has been approaching, but not managing to turn the 200-day Simple Moving Average into a support level. The uncertain market condition was emphasized by relatively low readings on the RSI and Chaikin Money Flow indicators.
As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I believe that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States, due out on July 11, could provide valuable insights into the next direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Slowing inflation figures might indicate a persistent deflationary trend, leading the Federal Reserve to contemplate reducing interest rates, which in turn could boost Bitcoin’s price and help it surpass its 200-day moving average.
As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on inflation numbers. If inflation turns out to be hotter than expected, it could give bearish traders an opportunity to push Bitcoin (BTC) prices down even further. According to Glassnode founders, this CPI data is a key factor that could influence the next move in BTC’s price trend.
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2024-07-11 18:15