Markets
What to know:
- Ah, Bitcoin, the digital miracle of our times, has soared to heights unseen since August, all because of that splendid U.S. government shutdown – or as I like to call it, ‘Operation Infinite Loop of Bureaucracy.’ 🚀
- This tiny hiccup might postpone those pesky economic reports, leading the Fed to slash rates even more, probably causing them to mistake themselves for a discount store. 😂
- Deribit’s BTC options? Oh, they’re practically giving them away for free at the moment – cheap as a bargain-basement improbability drive! 💸
Picture this: While the U.S. government hits the pause button on reality, Bitcoin decides to throw a party, jumping to its highest in two months like a panicking llama escaping a very British lion tamer. 🦙 After all, why not? A government shutdown is just the universe’s way of saying, ‘Hey, let’s pump some extra liquidity into the fiat for everyone!’
So, BTC has climbed nearly 4% in 24 hours, flirting with $119,455 – its first such fling since mid-August, per CoinDesk’s romantic data. Ether, Solana, and their crypto pals? They’ve ballooned 4% to 7%, making the CoinDesk 20 Index jump to 4,217 points with all the grace of a drunken space whale. 🐳
This rally is hot on the heels of Wednesday’s shutdown, where Congress played a rousing game of ‘Can’t We All Just Get Along?’ and failed miserably at funding anything but chaos.
But wait, the shutdown might even delay Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report – you know, that monthly jobs opus that could foster a ‘positive liquidity impulse,’ which, in plain English, means cheaper borrowing and more risk-taking. It’s like handing out infinite improbability drives! 🎢
“If ADP is any omen and the BLS is fashionably late, the Fed will probably dole out another 25 bp cut in October and hint at more, maybe even taper that QT wizardry,” quipped Matt Mena from 21Shares in an email that sounds like it was penned by Marvin the Paranoid Android. This’ll yank down real yields, soften the dollar, and gold‘ll stick around like a bad smell. Result? A liquidity fiesta that historically hoists BTC like a hitchhiker’s thumb. 🙄
Wednesday’s ADP report painted the labor market as bleaker than a towel-waving, depressed robot, bolstering the case for more Fed rate chops – they already nicked 25 bp last month and winked at more easing. Winky face. 😉
Mena snickered that BTC’s post-shutdown leap might be the harbinger of an explosive rally, because nothing says ‘stable economy’ like procrastinating on payroll data. 🎇
“The moral is: With data releases in disarray and macro madness at an all-time high, Bitcoin thrives in the breakdown of old playbooks. Watch closely – this could be crypto’s next galactic folly higher,” he rambled, sounding wiser than he probably is.
Options look cheap 🤣
To ride this impending cosmic kerfuffle while hedging your bets (because who wants to face the ultimate question without a safety net?), consider Deribit’s options – they look cheaper than a free Universe on the front end, says Amberdata’s Greg Magadini. 📉
“After BTC’s volatility drought, this U.S. shutdown could be the spark to ignite a proper fireworks show,” Magadini chortled to CoinDesk. “Paired with that steep contango in implied volatility, options are practically begging to be bought – bargain of the century!” 🌟
Ah, steep contango: that upward-sloping IV curve screaming ‘future volatility incoming’ louder than a Vogon poet declaiming. It renders near-term options as cheap as discount pixels in a subroutine. 📈
Magadini recommends a long straddle – that’s buying both call and put options at the same strike, expiry, so you’re set for a price boom or bust. Calls laugh upward, puts safeguard downward, and you profit from the galactic drama in either direction. 🤡
“The USD might get a jolt from the shutdown and payrolls, influencing the Fed. This could send BTC rallying as a dollar dodge or crashing in a risk-asset freakout,” he explained, justifying the straddle bias as wisely as anyone predicting rain in a thunderstorm. 🌩️
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2025-10-02 06:00