As a seasoned crypto investor with a background in trading and market analysis, I find Arthur Hayes’ insights on Bitcoin’s recent price action and future outlook particularly intriguing. His perspective, backed by his experience as the former CEO of BitMEX, carries significant weight in the cryptocurrency community.
According to Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of BitMEX, Bitcoin (BTC) may have reached its recent low and is expected to gradually recover in the upcoming months.
In a blog entry on May 3rd, Hayes expressed his anticipation as the stock market downturn unfolded, remarking that “the price developments followed my predictions.”
As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market trends, I predict that Bitcoin experienced a dip and reached a local minimum of approximately $58,600 earlier this week. However, it will recover and surpass the $60,000 mark before entering a range-bound phase between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.
Hayes added that the 12% Bitcoin retreat this week was a “well-needed market cleansing.”
During the US tax season, his concern extended to the impending Federal Reserve decisions, the “Bitcoin halving sell-off,” and the decelerated expansion of assets under management in Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The 23% correction was the fourth such retrace of similar magnitude over the past 12 months.
As an analyst, I believe Hayes anticipates a gradual upward trend in crypto markets following the recent downturn. This optimistic outlook is attributed to two key factors: firstly, the Federal Reserve’s QT taper leading to an increase in dollar liquidity, and secondly, the U.S. Treasury’s debt issuance plans.
Through gradually reducing the QT process, the central bank is essentially pumping additional funds into financial markets. This increased liquidity might eventually find its way into riskier investments like cryptocurrencies, leading to increased demand and potential price rises.
Hayes views this as “stealth money printing” which is positive for high-risk assets.
“Are the recent Fed and Treasury policy announcements stealth forms of money printing? Yes.”
As a researcher, I believe that the gradual injection of billions of dollars into the market every month will help curb any further downward trend in prices. In fact, I anticipate that prices will eventually hit their lowest point, bounce back slightly, and then start to climb again, albeit at a slow pace.
The former BitMEX boss isn’t the only one predicting a sideways market for the next few months.
Despite the pessimistic outlook expressed by some in a recent post on X, Dr. Jeff Ross, the Founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, remains cautiously optimistic about the ongoing market situation, which he referred to as “bullcrab” market.
I believe the shift in the Federal Reserve’s language marks the move from describing liquidity conditions as “bad” to “less bad.”
Experts warning of the demise of Bitcoin‘s bull market might be surprised to discover that the true bull phase has yet to begin, it was pointed out. The upcoming weeks are expected to present a chance for accruing more Bitcoins.
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve come across MatrixPort’s recent note to CryptoMoon. The institutional crypto brokerage expressed their belief that after the Bitcoin halving event, there is a tendency for the leading cryptocurrency to move sideways for approximately four to five months based on historical data.
At the moment of writing, Bitcoin’s price had regained 4.2 percent on the day to reach $59,804. Nevertheless, it was still 19 percent lower than its mid-March peak as indicated by CoinGecko.
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2024-05-03 08:25