Bitcoin breakout or black swan? $90K BTC price lacks gold, stocks high

by

As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen numerous bull and bear cycles unfold before my eyes. The current state of Bitcoin (BTC) against various macro assets is indeed intriguing and presents a unique conundrum.

Bitcoin (BTC) hasn’t yet reached its all-time highs compared to the S&P 500, gold, and other assets. However, it’s more a question of ‘when’, rather than ‘if’, it will do so in the future.

On November 15th, via a post on X, Caleb Franzen, the mind behind financial analysis tool Cubic Analytics, forecasted that Bitcoin’s price would exceed expectations in the near future.

Bitcoin macro breakout not yet reality

Although Bitcoin reached approximately $93,500 and surged by almost 50% during the fourth quarter, it hasn’t shown a significant price increase compared to most major financial assets. In other words, while Bitcoin has grown significantly in Q4, its price breakout relative to other macroeconomic assets is still pending.

According to Franzen, neither the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, NYSE FANG+ tech stocks, nor gold have outperformed Bitcoin so far.

“Just a matter of when, not if,” he predicted.

Regarding U.S. stocks, a pivotal point in Bitcoin’s timeline occurred around early 2021. This significant moment preceded the historic peak of BTC/USD at approximately $69,000, a level that persisted for more than two years after its achievement.

Despite the U.S. dollar repeatedly establishing new record highs, Bitcoin continues its journey towards establishing fresh peak values within the broader investment market.

Just last week, CryptoMoon shared insights about the current market showing signs of growth, surpassing gold’s previous multi-month streak of hitting record highs when measured in U.S. dollars.

During that period, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, predicted a swift adjustment in value since BTC/USD had surpassed its previous levels.

Later on, Edwards presented a graph showing gold’s significant surge in the 2000s following two decades of prices staying below their record highs from 1980. Similarly, he proposed that Bitcoin’s price against the US dollar (BTC/USD) could potentially mirror this trend now.

BTC price bears warn of $72,000 “at least”

In a surprising twist, a well-known but increasingly controversial Bitcoin investor is now suggesting that a downturn affecting various high-risk investments is imminent.

On November 15th, the leader in crypto shared a picture on his Telegram channel hinting at an impending rare and unexpected event (referred to as a “black swan” event).

Without any specific remarks, the post quickly spread across social media platforms, reminding users about Il Capo of Crypto’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $12,000, along with other related topics.

According to a report by CryptoMoon, pessimistic views about Bitcoin are still prevalent. More specifically, another trader named Credible Crypto has predicted that the value of Bitcoin could drop to around $50,000 or lower.

In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch.

If the peak reaches 93.8k in a strong, uninterrupted rise exceeding 100k, it’s probable that levels around 72k will no longer be significant until the next market downturn, as suggested by these graphs.

“If we instead sweep our highs and fail to produce a final, 5th subwave then it implies this move was indeed corrective and makes the odds of us retesting 70-72k AT LEAST exponentially higher.”

Read More

2024-11-16 14:04