Summarized wisdom from the cryptic halls:
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The Macro Chain Index, like an old Russian nobleman awakening from winter slumber, issues a “buy” decree for Bitcoin—the first since 2022. Will fortunes rise with the sun?
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RSI, that subtle and sly servant, has again stolen across MCI’s threshold, just as it did before those grand epochal feasts where Bitcoin soared 500% or more on the wings of optimism and folly.
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Recovering from the abysmal depths of $74,000, Bitcoin now stands at a proud $95,000, hair tousled, boots muddy, thanks to surging open interest and the ever-promising “positive funding rates.”
In the shadowy corridors of finance, where hope meets delusion and dollars drift away like serfs at dusk, the so-called “Macro Chain Index” stirs. Once before, in that distant year of 2022, it quietly signaled that perhaps—amidst the endless groaning of the marketplace—the bottom had finally been reached. And now, it waves the same ragged banner: buy! Friends, either we stand at the threshold of a new golden age, or we are about to join the ranks of Russian peasants, penniless but unbowed.
When the Bitcoin barometer mutters “bottom” 🍞
The Macro Chain Index (MCI), that enigmatic concoction of esoteric data and long-winded metrics, is something only a Dostoevsky villain—or an overcaffeinated crypto analyst—could invent. It obsesses over accumulation, network rituals, the tides of supply, and attempts to discern whether Bitcoin is truly worth more than mere talk and wishful thinking.
Of greatest intrigue is the RSI, tinted purple for dramatic effect, which in April leapt above its slothful yellow average, mimicking those glorious years when bulls stampeded and Bitcoin frolicked from $20,000 to $65,000, with a brief flirtation near $15,500 when everyone was “so sure” it could fall no lower.
Historical déjà vu, anyone? If this script plays out, as Tolstoyan history so often does, April 2025 marks the first act in yet another grand bull run opera—one more encore, with all the familiar characters: euphoria, regret, and that friend who just bought Bitcoin at the very top (again).
Would-be prophets (or Alpha Extract, as he is known outside of 19th-century Russia) peered into the revelatory scrolls of the MCI and declared, “The fundamentals and the market structure, shabby as ever, are lining up for a significant call, IMHO.” The humility is almost as ancient as his candlesticks.
“Considering that the fundamentals align and the market structure is gradually following, this is a significant call, imho.”
Bitcoin, battered by economic rumblings, dropped by a brooding 32% after reaching $110,000 in January—no small part thanks to US President Donald Trump’s knack for global trade arguments (waging war is tradition, after all).
Once finding itself as low as a Russian ruble beneath $74,450 in April, Bitcoin has since staggered back to $95,650, all as Wall Street shed its optimism and US stocks sulked moodily in their corner.
Bitcoin’s open interest: The nobility returns to the table 🎩📈
As in every Russian epic, Bitcoin’s fate is inextricably tied to the whims of markets and men—specifically, those feverish gamblers on Binance. From January to April, open interest collapsed from $11.9 billion to a pitiful $7.5 billion, echoing the way Moscow’s salons would empty before harvest season. But then, as if inspired by the prospect of a good duel, the numbers surged back, rising 29.3% in three weeks.
This unprecedented harmony—price and open interest both rising—suggests that traders may actually believe in Bitcoin’s prospects, or are at least pretending convincingly. Funding rates remain positive—a sure sign the optimists are paying the pessimists, as is customary in every speculative era, from tulips to tokens.
As open interest and funding rates gleam with the promise of spring, the growing bullish momentum may propel Bitcoin toward $100,000. Or, perhaps, we will gather months from now to reflect, vodka in hand, on how inevitable this folly always was.
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2025-04-30 15:26