As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience, I’ve witnessed Bitcoin‘s rollercoaster ride more times than I can count. The latest price action has been no exception, and I find myself both intrigued and cautious as we kick off the trading week of 2025.
Having weathered multiple market cycles, I can attest to the unpredictability of Bitcoin’s price movements. The recent climb to $97,000 on Jan 4 was a sight for sore eyes, but the failure to flip traders short-term bullish is a reminder that this game is far from over.
I remember the days when BTC was trading at mere fractions of a cent, and it’s humbling to see its meteoric rise. However, I also recall the bitter lessons learned during previous bull runs—lessons that have taught me to remain patient and level-headed in the face of such price volatility.
Despite the recent gains, I share the skepticism expressed by traders like Scient and Crypto Tony, who caution against getting too optimistic until we breach $99k and flip it to support. As they say, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
That said, the influx of institutional money into Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 3 is a promising development that bodes well for the long-term prospects of the crypto market. The $908 million comeback by US spot Bitcoin ETFs, especially the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and iShares Bitcoin Trust, shows that institutional investors are returning to the fold after the Christmas/year-end sell-off.
I’m keeping a close eye on the Coinbase Premium index, which has rebounded above its 14-day SMA for the first time in nearly a month. As Burak Kesmeci pointed out, this suggests that U.S.-based buyers could exert stronger influence over Bitcoin’s price trajectory—a development I welcome wholeheartedly.
In closing, let me share a little joke to lighten the mood: “Why did Bitcoin cross the road? To get to the other chain!” After all, even in the face of market volatility and unpredictability, a sense of humor goes a long way in crypto investing.
On January 4, 2025, Bitcoin’s value reached approximately $97,000 during the initial Wall Street trading week of the year. This marked a significant recovery, with Bitcoin reclaiming a crucial level of support.
BTC price fails to flip traders short-term bullish
data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that the BTC/USD pair was experiencing a pause in its upward trend, having achieved an increase of approximately 6% since the start of the year.
Starting from New Year’s Eve, Bitcoin managed to reach back its important 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a critical point that traders often refer to as crucial for the prolongation of a rising market trend.
According to well-known trader Skew, Bitcoin ended the day with strength and maintaining its momentum as he explained in his recent post on January 3rd.
Regardless of recent advancements, some continue to approach Bitcoin’s price trends with skepticism, even predicting a downward trend in January.
If we don’t surpass $99k and instead find resistance there, I believe the price might drop in January,” fellow trader Scient indicated to his 9 followers.
“Pretty simple triggers for me here: Break and flip $99k or retest or $90-88k zone.”
According to trader Crypto Tony, he anticipates a temporary price increase followed by another potential decline down to approximately $90,000.
Daan Crypto Trades predicts that Bitcoin may remain relatively stable over the weekend, while alternative cryptocurrencies could potentially become more active.
“The weekend could offer some decent dip buys if we get it. My bias for Q1 is bullish so I’m not worried about any short term movements.”
A recent chart demonstrated the most current settlement price for Bitcoin futures traded on CME Group. This figure tends to attract short-term price movements when the market resumes trading.
Based on my years of trading experience, I firmly believe that the opening week of 2025 will offer a clearer insight into our short-term trajectory. As someone who has navigated through various market fluctuations and trends, I can confidently say that this initial period will provide valuable clues for our future direction.
Bitcoin ETFs stage a $900 million comeback
On January 3rd, there was a significant reversal as US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) collectively attracted approximately $908 million.
Reflecting on the significance of the 16th anniversary of the genesis block, I find myself drawn to the recent surge of institutional investors pouring into Bitcoin-related products. Notably, just a few days ago, we witnessed an unprecedented wave of outflows from these same products.
Data sourced from various outlets, including Farside Investors based in the UK, demonstrated that the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) received the greatest portion of the investment inflow, totaling approximately $357 million.
The largest of the ETFs, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed $253 million.
Major investments are returning following the drop in value after the holiday or year-end market slump,” said crypto trader Patric H, in a portion of his response.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed an intriguing trend: The analysis highlights favorable advancements regarding the Coinbase premium. This refers to the price gap between Bitcoin traded against the USD on the largest US exchange, Coinbase, and its equivalent in Bitcoin traded against Tether (USDT) on Binance.
On December 31st, when it reached a 12-month low, the Coinbase Premium index bounced back and surpassed its Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the past 14 days for the first time in close to a month.
Based on my extensive experience in cryptocurrency analysis and my work as a contributor to the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, I believe that when the Coinbase Premium Index remains above the SMA14, it is a strong indication that the market will continue testing the positive zone. This has been consistently observed in various market conditions, and I have found this trend to be particularly relevant during periods of increased investor interest and bullish sentiment. As always, it’s important to keep a close eye on market developments and make informed decisions based on a combination of technical analysis and fundamental research.
“This suggests that U.S.-based buyers could exert stronger influence over Bitcoin’s price trajectory.”
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2025-01-04 16:44