Bitcoin Google search spike after Trump victory signals new investor interest

As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have witnessed numerous cycles and trends that have shaped the investment landscape. The surge in interest in cryptocurrency following Donald Trump’s victory as US President-elect is no exception, and it has piqued my curiosity once again.


Following the election of Donald Trump as the U.S. President, there’s been a significant increase in interest towards cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, in particular, reached unprecedented peaks as Trump’s campaign indicated a supportive stance towards the crypto sector.

According to experts, an increase in search activity and investment indicates that retail investors are showing renewed enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, possibly signaling a surge of newcomers preparing to join the crypto market.

Ryan Chow, who serves as co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin (BTC) staking platform Solv Protocol, shared with CryptoMoon that Trump’s win could serve as a significant trigger for initiating the upcoming bull market.

He expressed optimism about the surge in retail investors, saying:

“Bitcoin reaching an all-time high is one of the best advertisements for crypto there is.”

During past Bitcoin market surges, individual investors have significantly contributed, but they appear less active in this particular trend. Instead, institutional investors have been more prominent players, particularly after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds in January.

In simple terms, Coinbase, which is well-liked by individual cryptocurrency traders, experienced a decrease in its stock value following the disclosure in its Q3 shareholder letter on October 30 that trading fee revenue was lower than anticipated. The actual revenue amounted to $1.13 billion, representing an over 81% increase compared to the same period last year, but it fell below the predictions of Wall Street analysts, who had forecasted a figure of $1.26 billion.

As an analyst, I can say that I attribute the exchange’s disappointing outcomes to the softening market conditions, as a decline in retail trading was instrumental in this poor performance. In October alone, the search volume for Bitcoin on Google reached its lowest point of the year, suggesting that retail traders have yet to fully engage with the crypto bull market.

In a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submission made on November 5, it was revealed that PayPal, a leading player in online payments, saw a nearly 11% drop in the cryptocurrency held for its customers between the second and third quarters. This reduction brought the total down to approximately $2.17 billion, indicating a possible decrease in retail crypto transactions.

In her Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, analyst Noelle Acheson pointed out that “on the whole,” retail investors typically adopt cryptocurrencies later rather than earlier. She explained that these investors are influenced by price-driven news and popular social trends. Acheson suggested that since we don’t see many retail investors yet, it means the crypto market is still in its early stages. According to her, we can expect to be approaching peak hype when retail investors start pouring in heavily.

crypto enthusiast and Bitcoin instructor Chris Dunn stated to CryptoMoon, “Trump’s win serves as a storyline propelling the market to challenge record highs” and “a surge beyond $75,000 that could re-attract individual investors.

After Donald Trump’s victory in the elections and the all-time high prices of Bitcoin, there was a significant increase in people searching for “Bitcoin” on Google. The surge in searches happened within 24 hours following Trump’s election win, suggesting that the mindset of many retail traders may have changed towards Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Google search spike after Trump victory signals new investor interest

Dunn expressed that Trump’s election win served as a boost for optimism regarding the future of cryptocurrency within the U.S., further stating:

“People love a good ‘reason’ to hop on the bandwagon, and this is a compelling one.”

Dunn said retail investors will first turn to Bitcoin, adding: “Now that it looks like the anti-crypto army has been crushed, I expect smaller cap altcoins to get some momentum, too.”

Since November 2022, when Bitcoin hit nearly $15,000 as its lowest point, it has shown a robust upward trajectory that has extended into 2024. However, even with favorable circumstances, it might be perplexing as to why retail investors haven’t flooded into the crypto market in large numbers yet.

Retail investors scarry scars from previous market collapses

In simpler terms, retail investors often join an investment trend when it’s already well-established, providing a way out for big investors (whales) and more knowledgeable investors (smart money), who initially made the investment.

Dunn said retail investors are still suffering a hangover “from the FTX implosion.” He added that retail investors thought “crypto was dead in the US thanks to Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler’s anti-innovation rhetoric.”

The downfall of FTX revealed a pervasive disregard for due diligence and questionable business conduct across the cryptocurrency sector, bringing to light significant issues with corporate responsibility, risk assessment, and governmental supervision.

A substantial number of investors have unfortunately lost their funds, while approximately billions of dollars are yet to be traced, causing a significant drop in public trust towards the wider cryptocurrency market.

Initially celebrated as a hero within the cryptocurrency world, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) of FTX fame, later found himself labeled as its chief antagonist instead. His downfall not only revealed underlying weaknesses in the crypto industry but also significantly undermined trust that had been carefully cultivated over time.

The incarceration of the SBF and the collapse of corrupt figures in the cryptocurrency market has contributed to a degree in improving the industry’s reputation.

Trump’s win could potentially ease regulatory worries for U.S. retail investors in the field of cryptocurrency, as they might find relief from the enforcement-based regulation approach that the SEC, led by Gensler, has been known to employ. This method is often referred to as “regulation through enforcement.

Trump has pledged to dismiss Gensler at the start of his term and appoint someone more supportive of cryptocurrencies in his place, indicating a possible change in regulatory stance towards digital assets. Furthermore, Trump promised to exclude Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren from any control over Bitcoin owners; however, this promise does not fall under the direct authority of a U.S. president to carry out.

During his time, Gensler’s tenure as SEC Chairman will soon come to an end. However, Warren still holds significant influence, having won the Massachusetts Senate race over cryptocurrency advocate John Deaton.

Even though Warren secured a victory, her impact in the Senate might lessen due to the fact that Republicans now hold power in this significant legislative institution. This shift could restrict her efforts to advance anti-cryptocurrency regulations.

Market memory often fades when new opportunities emerge, but as with any crisis, time is required for healing. Trump’s election victory and Bitcoin’s new ATHs may provide the catalyst retail investors need to put past setbacks behind them and re-enter the crypto market with renewed optimism.

Read More

2024-11-08 16:48