Bitcoin has a 50-50 chance of reaching $100K by year-end: Options data

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As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade of experience under my belt, I’ve seen my fair share of market highs and lows. The recent pullback of Bitcoin to $90,000 might seem daunting to some, but it’s just another chapter in this rollercoaster ride we call the crypto market.

Approximately half of Bitcoin options traders anticipate that its value will reach six figures (or more) by the end of 2024, with some optimistic predictions pointing towards a potential rise to $150,000, despite a recent dip down to $90,000. This is indicated by on-chain data analysis.

According to Nick Forster, the founder of an onchain options Defi protocol, there’s now a 45% chance that Bitcoin will go over $100,000, which was only at 34% last week. Moreover, he added a fresh 4% possibility suggesting that Bitcoin might even reach $150,000.

‘Very few’ Bitcoin sellers, according to data

Additionally, Forster clarified that the high interest in Bitcoin (BTC) options, specifically those predicting a price increase (calls), indicates a robust market desire for both profit opportunities from rising prices and safeguards against potential losses.

As a crypto investor, I’ve learned from Derive data that about 41.3% of the contracts traded were call options, while around 38.3% were put options, indicating a strong belief that Bitcoin will rise rather than fall. These options give me the privilege, not the duty, to buy or sell Bitcoin at a specific price (the strike price) before a certain expiration date. With very few sellers, it seems that most are betting on Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

Currently, the value of Bitcoin stands at approximately $92,680 at the time of this report. This represents a decrease of around 7.02% from its recent high of $99,541, as per the data provided by CoinMarketCap.

According to the data, Bitcoin could either retrace to around $81,493 by the end of 2024 with a probability of 68%, or it might surge to $115,579 under similar circumstances. Conversely, there’s only a 5% likelihood that Bitcoin will fall below $70,000 to reach about $68,429, and an equally small chance that it could soar as high as $137,645 by the end of 2024.

However, some analysts have not ruled out the possibility of more severe pullbacks.

More brutal pullbacks a possibility, says analysts

In a recent post on November 26th, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, expressed that during a strong upward trend (bull run), Bitcoin may still experience temporary drops of up to 30%.

During the 2021 period, it was noticeable that significant adjustments were frequently made as Bitcoin increased dramatically from $17,000 to $64,000.

Ju is not suggesting an adjustment, but rather urging you to consider the risks and refrain from selling in haste during market lows. Remember, we’re currently experiencing a bull market.

Meanwhile, prominent crypto analyst PlanC is “happy” to see Bitcoin “consolidate a bit in the 90s.”

According to PlanC’s post on November 26, it seems increasingly probable that we might have an opportunity to solidify our position during the 1990s.

In that situation, it would represent an optimal outcome for the continued duration of this stock market rally,” he noted as an additional point.

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2024-11-27 09:21