As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in both traditional and crypto markets, I have seen my fair share of “perfect storms” that have significantly impacted market dynamics. However, the current convergence of factors surrounding Bitcoin’s price action is truly unprecedented.
Analysts at Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, predict that the potential confluence of Donald Trump’s likelihood of winning the presidential election and historically favorable market conditions may create an unprecedented surge in Bitcoin price, potentially reaching a new record high next month.
“The convergence of election uncertainty, the ‘Trump trade’ narrative, and favorable Q4 seasonality create a perfect storm for Bitcoin, promising an exciting period ahead regardless of noisy price movements heading into the election in two weeks’ time.”
According to Bitfinex analysts in their October 28th market report, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and economic issues within the U.S. However, optimism surrounding a possible Trump victory in the November 5th election seems to have caused a sharp increase in its value.
Currently, a single Bitcoin is being traded at approximately $71,086, marking a 4.9% increase over the past day, according to information from CoinGecko. This is the highest value Bitcoin has reached in almost five months.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin needs to increase by approximately 3.4% to reach and surpass its record peak of $73,700, a level it achieved back in March of this year.
Analysts have observed that the “Trump trade” storyline is gaining momentum in relation to Bitcoin’s current surge. In essence, they suggest that there has been a substantial rise in the connection between Bitcoin’s price growth and a potential Trump election victory on November 5th.
At present, Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris by approximately 30 percentage points on the peer-to-peer prediction market, Polymarket. However, in nationwide surveys compiled from 583 polling sources, Harris has a slight edge over Trump by about 1.5%.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price is happening when open interest is at a record level, with a new peak of $41.7 billion reached on October 29th. This indicates an enormous demand for taking on more risk with Bitcoin, based on the data from CoinGlass.
Bitifnex analysts also noted a steady build-up in call options on BTC for late December.
With the total number of outstanding contracts and their analysis, they indicated that the market might be preparing for an “upsurge post-election,” potentially pushing Bitcoin past its previous record high of $73,800 after the election.
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2024-10-29 07:44