As a seasoned analyst with a decade of experience navigating the ever-evolving crypto market, I find it fascinating to witness the intricate dance between politics and digital currencies, particularly Bitcoin. The latest surge in Bitcoin’s price, reaching an all-time high above $73,800 on Nov 6th, seems undeniably tied to the US presidential election.
On November 6th, Bitcoin reached a never-before-seen peak of over $73,800, with traders anxiously looking forward to the outcome of the United States presidential election.
To begin with the New York trading session, Bitcoin demonstrated robustness, surging over 3% to reach a peak of $70,577, an intraday high, due to increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market stemming from the US presidential elections.
For the bulk of 2024, traders have expressed positive views regarding Bitcon’s price potential if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the election, and throughout the year, the Republican and Democratic candidates have evolved their policy views on regulation within the cryptocurrency industry.
On November 5th, Bitcoin expert Tuur Demeester proposed a connection between President Trump’s interest in election-related news and surges in the price of Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin appears to be following the outcome of the U.S. elections quite closely. Whenever there’s positive news regarding Trump, its value tends to rise.
— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) November 5, 2024
Is Bitcoin’s rally correlated with Trump’s rising odds?
It appears that the price of Bitcoin is mirroring the increasing chances of Trump’s victory, as indicated by the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket.
On November 5th, the value of Bitcoin surged again above $70,000, coinciding with increased chances (above 60%) of Trump’s victory and a decrease in Harris’ prospects (below 39%).
Bitcoin price volatility is expected to remain after the US elections
Even though Bitcoin has reached a record high, traders anticipate its value to stay unpredictable, as the shifting positions of market players suggest this viewpoint.
On November 4th, an unusual day marked by substantial outflows from Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) occurred. To be precise, a total of $541.1 million was withdrawn, with Fidelity, ArkInvest, Bitwise, Grayscale, and GBTC experiencing selling pressure. Interestingly, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded inflows amounting to $38.3 million on this day. In my analysis, this shift in investment flow suggests a temporary repositioning of portfolios among investors.
The topic of various safeguards implemented within the Bitcoin options market was extensively covered by Tony Stewart, founder of Pelion Capital, as well.
Yesterday’s purchase of Nov29 70k Calls on CME is the largest one-clip trade we’ve seen in a while – $250m notional, $14.3m premium, and adds to an existing $125m position just in that one Strike.
CME has added a similar notional clip (but lower premium) in Nov29 85k Calls, and…
— Tony Stewart (@PelionCap) November 5, 2024
In simpler terms and with a touch of interpretation, Marcel Pechman, an options analyst at CryptoMoon, expressed that he sees potential in certain crypto options.
“Traders are overall more bullish, especially for Nov. 7, Nov. 15, and Nov. 29. Most new bets were on prices at 72,000 to 75,000 or higher. The notable buy of $64,000 puts suggests some fear and market makers face higher risk if Bitcoin drops, as they sold puts at lower prices.”
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2024-11-06 06:09