As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I have seen my fair share of bull rallies and market cycles. The latest analysis by CryptoQuant regarding Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple is certainly intriguing, especially given its historical precedence of signaling significant price surges following a golden cross.
If a traditional Bitcoin (BTC) price indicator mirrors its past breakthrough, we might witness an intense surge or upward trend for Bitcoin, often referred to as a “powerful bull run” in financial markets.
On November 18th, the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant highlighted an unusual occurrence in Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple through one of its Quicktake blog posts, suggesting a Golden Cross.
Puell Multiple nears BTC price breakout line
If the Puell Multiple experiences a seldom-seen breakout, Bitcoin optimists could potentially reap gains of approximately 90% on their investments.
Over the last five years, CryptoQuant’s data indicates that this particular metric only crosses its one-year moving average on three separate instances. Each time, these events were followed by substantial increases in the Bitcoin-to-U.S. Dollar exchange rate.
Burakkesmeci, a contributor at CryptoQuant, explained that the Puell Multiple provides insight into market cycles by looking at them from a miner’s point of view,” or simply, “Burakkesmeci stated that the Puell Multiple gives us a miner’s perspective on market cycle fluctuations.
“It is a crucial indicator for evaluating mining profitability.”
The Puell indicator gauges the day-to-day worth of newly mined Bitcoins in relation to their 365-day moving average, offering insights about miner activity. It’s common for this value to intersect with the moving average trendline, which often precedes significant increases in Bitcoin prices.
Back in March 2019, the occurrence of a Puell golden cross led to a substantial 83% price increase. Then, in January 2020, it ignited a surge that brought about a 113% gain. The latest instance in January 2024 generated a 76% profit as well.
The presented data indicates that when the Puell Multiple goes above its 365-day moving average, a typical price rise of approximately 90% for Bitcoin has been observed in previous instances, according to calculations.
Summarizing, CryptoQuant suggests that advantageous economic conditions may increase the likelihood of a strong market rise, which they describe as “inevitable.
The collection of these data points, along with the overall economic picture, seems to indicate that a significant upward trend in the stock market (bull rally) may soon occur.
RSI signals Bitcoin bull market just beginning
According to CryptoMoon’s latest report, several analysts believe that Bitcoin’s largest price increase is yet to come, even though the BTC/USD exchange rate has already risen by more than 40% in the fourth quarter.
In simpler terms, we’ve entered the “rapidly increasing stage” of the market, which typically persists for about 300 days, followed by a new high point in the overall trend.
In local circles, there’s growing belief that Bitcoin could hit six digits for the very first time, but this optimism is balanced with worries that widespread fear of missing out among retail investors might trigger a substantial market correction.
This week, according to popular commentator Preston Pysh, co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast, many individuals are likely to get well-acquainted with the term “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) in relation to the Bitcoin market cycle.
As a researcher, I recently looked back at the predictions made by pseudonymous analyst PlanB, who developed the Stock-to-Flow family of Bitcoin price models. According to his analysis, the primary wave of fear of missing out (FOMO) is expected to peak in early 2025.
In simpler terms, during Bitcoin’s upward trends (bull markets), the Relative Strength Index (RSI) usually remains above the “overbought” level of 70, as noted by PlanB. As of November 18, according to data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, the monthly RSI stands at 74.4.
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2024-11-19 11:13