Key Takeaways:
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Some analyst thinks everything’s hunky-dory because the VIX is low (what a shocker!).
So apparently, this guy Timothy Peterson—he crunches numbers, or, you know, whatever it is network economists do—says Bitcoin (oh boy, here we go) could hit a new all-time high in 100 days. 100 days! Like a Netflix limited series, but with more drama and less binge-watching.
He gets all excited and posts on X (which is still Twitter to me, but whatever) that if the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) stays low, we should all buckle up for $135k Bitcoin. Low VIX apparently means “risk-on.” Basically, everyone’s bored, so let’s all YOLO into Bitcoin. That’s the vibe.
And get this—his model is 95% accurate. Great. I have socks that are 95% cotton, look where that got me. If the VIX doesn’t decide to throw a tantrum, we’re all rich. If not, hey, at least we tried, right?
Now, we’ve got Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer jumping in with a “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” metaphor. Bitcoin is both your responsible uncle and your degenerate cousin at the same time. One minute, it’s a “store of value;” blink, and it’s meme stock mania. Gold, in comparison, is just… what, your grandpa? Boring. Reliable. Needs a nap at 3pm.
“When M2 grows and stocks go up, Bitcoin gets its groove on. When the market tanks? Meh, not so much.”
So, if you thought predicting Bitcoin was easier than picking which sock goes missing in the dryer, think again. It’s chaos, Jerry! Chaos!
Stablecoins: The Liquidity Pool Party 🎉
Here’s a juicy tidbit: CryptoQuant says stablecoin market cap hits $220 billion. That’s a record. It’s like every crypto bro’s ex just got back in the pool. Suddenly, Bitcoin is out of its bear slump. Everybody’s feeling frisky.
But! (And there’s always a but…) Short-term charts say funding rates for BTC futures are negative. Traders are loading up on shorts, hoping to ruin someone’s day if the rally fails.
The 4-hour funding rate is more negative than a Yelp review of my local diner. Shorts are piling up, ready to be squeezed harder than a tube of expired toothpaste. CryptoMoon claims there’s $3 billion in short positions just waiting to go up in smoke.
If Bitcoin blasts upward, those bearish traders are going to look like they bet against Larry David’s patience at the DMV—never a good idea 😅
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2025-05-02 22:54