Based on the analysis of a market expert, a significant amount of Bitcoin (BTC) might be released by miners in the ensuing months after the halving event, similar to past trends.
According to an analysis by Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, Bitcoin miners might sell approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the upcoming halving event.
“He suggested that the impact of this recent selling could persist for between four to six months. Consequently, Bitcoin may exhibit a horizontal trend over the coming months, as it typically does after previous halvings.”
Thielen warned that crypto markets could experience another downturn during the six-month period referred to as the “summer lull.”
For five months post-2020 halving, Bitcoin’s price hovered between $9,000 and $11,500, showing little movement.
In the upcoming weeks, around April 20, there is expected to be a halving event in the market. This means that the reward for mining new blocks will be reduced by half. Given this timeline, it’s possible that we won’t observe any substantial price increase until approximately October if past trends hold true.
Moreover, it is common for Bitcoin miners to accumulate large amounts of the cryptocurrency prior to the halving event. This accumulation results in an imbalance between supply and demand, ultimately causing Bitcoin prices to surge. (Source: He mentioned this during the conversation.)
In the year 2024, Bitcoin prices experienced a significant increase, rising by 74% and peaking at a record-breaking price of $73,734 on March 14. However, after reaching this all-time high, the prices took a downturn and fell below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen believes that altcoins may experience significant setbacks in this current scenario. Over the past week, numerous altcoins have significantly dropped in value and are still far from reaching their 2021 highs.
“Even if there is a correlation between the halving and an altcoin rally, as some predict, historical evidence shows that the rally typically begins almost six months later.”
Thielen proposed that Marathon, the biggest Bitcoin miner globally, may have stockpiled a significant amount of Bitcoin. This stash could be progressively offloaded following the halving event to avoid a steep revenue decline.
Marion from Marathon currently mines around 28-30 Bitcoin each day. After the upcoming halving event, their daily output is predicted to decrease to approximately 14-15 Bitcoin. Consequently, an extra 133 days’ worth of Bitcoin (alongside the post-halving production) would enter the market.
“Other miners will likely follow a similar strategy to liquidate part of their inventory gradually.”
If every miner adopts the same approach to sell their Bitcoins following a halving event, it might lead to a maximum daily sale of $104 million worth of Bitcoin. This could potentially correct the supply and demand discrepancy that triggered Bitcoin’s price increase before the halving occurred.
Last week, Peter Thiel, CEO of Marathon, shared that his company would need approximately $46,000 in revenue for each Bitcoin to maintain profitability following the halving. He also expressed doubt that there would be substantial price fluctuations within the six months post-event.
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2024-04-15 06:54