As a researcher with extensive experience in the crypto market, I’m closely monitoring the recent developments in Bitcoin (BTC). The potential $61,000 breakdown on May 9 has put pressure on the bull market support levels.
On May 9, Bitcoin (BTC) approached the brink of a potential breakdown below $61,000 as key trendlines were put to the test once more.
BTC price keeps up pressure on bull market support
The data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView mirrored Bitcoin’s gradual descent, wiping out the weekly gains.
When examining order book liquidity through low-timeframe volatility, Bitcoin’s price action against the US Dollar showed a general lack of upward momentum overall. Now, both the 100-day simple moving average and short-term holder realized price have regained significance.
According to CryptoMoon’s report, these levels of support, which are typical in a bull market, weren’t breached for an extended period after Bitcoin dipped down to $56,500 last week.
At the current moment, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for Bitcoin was at a price of $61,200, while the Speculative Cost Basis (STH-RP) of Bitcoin speculators was set at $60,100.
In a recent analysis of X (previously known as Twitter), well-known trader Skew emphasized the significance of the 100-day simple moving average and the monthly opening price, which are currently at $60,600, for larger time frames.
“Overnight, it was noted that there are around 100 Bitcoin bids waiting in the queue. However, to confirm a significant surge in demand, we require clear signs of sellers being absorbed first.”
According to the data monitored by CoinGlass, there is a significant cluster of bids for Bitcoin around the $61,000 mark, indicating a potential resistance level for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has yet to surmount this price point as of now.
“Someone is exiting their position at lower prices and seeking to capitalize on bounces by increasing the amount of assets they have up for sale.”
“Keeping an eye on this because eventually someone will take the other side (bid) & test this ask liquidity.”
Bitcoin mining hash rate, difficulty retreat
The latest BTC price moves meanwhile took their toll on network fundamentals.
As a researcher studying the Bitcoin market, I’ve noticed that the mining difficulty was predicted to decrease by approximately 5.5% based on data from BTC.com – marking the most significant single drop since the conclusion of the 2022 bear market. Simultaneously, the BTC/USD exchange rate hovered around the $20,000 threshold at that moment in time.
Difficulty is currently at all-time highs of 83.23 trillion.
As a cryptocurrency investor keeping a close eye on X, I’ve been following the insights from the mining analysis account Pennyether. Recently, they pointed out an intriguing observation: the hash rate for X was showing signs of decreasing.
As an analyst, I’d rephrase that statement as follows: “The hashrate seems to be decreasing, but it’s essential to note that miners are primarily concerned with the network difficulty rather than the overall hashrate. Mining more bitcoin per EH/s is not an option for miners until the difficulty level decreases, which typically occurs approximately every 2016 blocks or around 14 days.”
“Assuming we get a -7% adjustment, that puts the ‘difficulty hashrate’ at around 585 EH/s. Referring to my post-halving prediction, this is still above my estimate of 560 EH/s given the current hashprice of $50.”
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2024-05-09 12:19