Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

    BTC STH MVRV retested a key resistance level and could trigger a rally if it breaks the hurdle. 
    However, the recent uptrend momentum weakened at the $65K resistance on price charts. 

As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in the cryptocurrency market, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin (BTC). The on-chain data suggests that BTC is retesting a crucial price resistance, which, if broken, could potentially set off a significant rally.


According to blockchain information, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to surpass an important price barrier. If it succeeds, this breakthrough might initiate a significant surge in its value.

Based on the analysis by Checkmate who focuses on blockchain data, the short-term investors’ MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator is being tested against its 155-day moving average.

Historically, a move above the MA triggered a ‘decent rally,’ per the analyst. 

Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

What’s next for BTC?

In simpler terms, the MVRV ratio is a tool used to determine if Bitcoin is being sold at more than its actual worth (overpriced) or less than its actual worth (undervalued). When the MVRV value exceeds 1, it means that most Bitcoin owners are currently enjoying profits from their investments.

Contrarily, when the average short-term investor holds below 1 BTC, it typically suggests they are sitting on losses. This pattern commonly emerges during periods of price consolidation and implies that Bitcoin might be underestimated in value.

Besides the current Bitcoin price, the STH MVRV (Maker’s Value Realized to Market Value Ratio) serves as a significant level for both support and resistance when analyzed with the 155-day moving average. As we speak, this metric is inching closer to 1 and is about to breach the 155-day moving average.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping an eye on STH MVRH’s movement. Interestingly, the chart indicates that this token has surged above its 155-day moving average in two significant quarters: Q1 of 2024 and Q4 of 2023. In these instances, Bitcoin followed suit with a substantial rally, which proved beneficial for short-term investors like myself, potentially leading to profitable outcomes.

From my analysis, it appears that Bitcoin (BTC) might be on track to repeat a previous trend, potentially leading to an increase in its value. Should the bulls successfully breach the current resistance and gain momentum, BTC could aim for significant milestones such as $66,000 and $70,000, as suggested by my observations.

If the bulls are successful in reaching a new weekly high around $65,300, it’s likely that they will make an effort to break the All-Time High (ATH).

Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

The on-chain analyst added, 

For those who bought recently (short-term holders), it’s likely that they will see substantial profits ranging from around $66,100 to $70,800. Therefore, I’ll be keeping an eye on how they decide to cash out their gains.

Yet, in price charts, a less time-extensive perspective displayed reduced momentum and an important barrier at $65K, according to trader Skew’s depiction.

The trader highlighted stalled RSI and weak flows as the reasons BTC could struggle to clear $65k in the short term. If so, the trader projected BTC could ease to $61K. 

Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

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2024-09-26 06:47