Bitcoin options expiry worth $1.5 billion sets $69K max pain price

Approximately 1.5 billion dollars’ worth of Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts are due to expire on April 12, implying a possible drop in Bitcoin’s price towards $69,000 as a result of the impending expirations and potential market instability.

Approximately $1.5 billion in value of Bitcoin options are set to expire with a put-to-call ratio of 0.62. This indicates a potential “max pain” point for Bitcoin’s price at around $69,000, as mentioned in an April 12 post by the anonymous trader known as Greeks.

According to Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, Bitcoin may not return to its previous record-breaking price even after experiencing significant setbacks, as reported by CryptoMoon.

“The max pain point refers to the price at which most options contracts would expire worthless. It’s an indicator of where options market participants are positioned, but it doesn’t necessarily influence where the underlying [asset] will be trading at.”

Options nearing their expiry dates in the crypto market scene frequently exhibit heightened price instability. However, Yang expressed skepticism towards further volatility, noting the limited scale of the options expiring on Friday.

“I don’t expect more volatility given options market is still only a fraction of the total crypto derivative market.”

From 10:25 am UTC onward, the previous 24 hours had seen little change in Bitcoin’s price, with it being valued at $70,725. However, Bitcoin showed a weekly growth of 5.9%, based on CoinMarketCap’s latest figures.

Bitcoin options expiry worth $1.5 billion sets $69K max pain price

Andrey Stoychev, Nexo’s Prime Brokerage head, believes that Bitcoin’s price could continue experiencing heightened volatility due to broader economic conditions, not just because of the upcoming options expiry, as reported by CryptoMoon.

“Bitcoin may approach the $69,000 mark, but whether it falls to that level depends on the broader context, including market sentiment and Bitcoin’s dance with inflation. The recent U.S. CPI data, which came in higher than expected on Wednesday, has raised concerns about inflationary pressures, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price dynamics.”

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States for March was reported slightly higher than anticipated, at a 3.5% increase year-over-year. This news led some large Bitcoin investors to purchase when prices dipped, helping to push the price back above $70,000 on April 10th.

ETF inflows slow down ahead of the Bitcoin halving

Weekly inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs from Dune’s data show a deceleration, with approximately $220 million in total net deposits. (Before the Bitcoin halving)

Bitcoin options expiry worth $1.5 billion sets $69K max pain price

The amount of money flowing into weekly ETFs has decreased significantly since their peak week on March 11, which saw a record-breaking $2.58 billion in net inflows. However, last week’s figures showed only $337 million in net inflows, representing a more than 45% drop from the previous week’s $615 million.

Approximately 839,000 Bitcoins, equivalent to around $59.4 billion, are held by Bitcoin ETFs collectively on the blockchain, accounting for approximately 4.26% of the entire existing Bitcoin supply.

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2024-04-12 14:52