Bitcoin Panic Returns: Is the ‘Death Cross’ the New Trendy Accessory?

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So, Bitcoin‘s “death cross” is back in the mix, huh? You know, just when you thought it was safe to scroll through your group chat! 📱 Matthew Sigel, the big cheese over at VanEck’s digital assets research, must be thrilled because he’s inundated with questions from clients about this latest drama. And of course, he responds with a data dump that’s supposed to calm everyone down. Because nothing says “I’m totally relaxed” like a bunch of numbers! 😅

He calls it a “lagging indicator,” which, let’s be honest, sounds like something you’d hear at a dinner party when everyone’s trying to sound intelligent but really just wants to talk about the weather. He even shared a chart showing every Bitcoin death cross dating back to 2011. Spoiler alert: the six-month median return after a death cross is +30% and the twelve-month is +89%. But who needs context when you’ve got statistics, right?

Another Bitcoin Death Cross, Another Missed Bottom?

Now, here’s where it gets juicy. Sigel also has this column about market regimes. Basically, it’s a fancy way of saying the same signal can mean totally different things depending on where you’re at in the whole cycle. It’s like trying to understand your friend’s mood swings – one minute they’re happy, the next they’re crying over their ex. 😭

Look at those labeled as “bottom.” In 2011, it was like a post-bubble therapy session, leading to a whopping +357%. Fast forward to 2020, when we had the pandemic meltdown – the forced liquidation, the policy response, and then BAM! A jaw-dropping +812%. Talk about a bounce back! I mean, who wouldn’t want to invest in something that goes from zero to hero faster than you can say “what happened?”

But then we hit the “structural bear” labels, which are less fun. They show up in 2014, twice in 2018, and in 2022. Those returns? Oof. We’re talking -48%, -56%, and -52%. It’s like the worst kind of family reunion – no one’s having fun, and everybody’s just waiting for it to be over. 🙄

And don’t forget about the in-between years! 2019 was “late bear” with a modest +9%, and 2021 went from +30% to -43%. It’s like a rollercoaster without a safety bar. You buckle up and hope for the best, but you’re probably going to throw up anyway! 🎢

Then there’s 2024, which is tagged “post-ETF regime.” Now we’re talking +58% at six months and +94% at twelve. This one’s tricky; it’s not just about price vs. moving averages anymore. It’s like mixing your grandma’s secret recipe with a trendy new ingredient – who knows what will happen? 🍲

So, what’s the takeaway? Is the death cross bullish? Not so fast! It’s mostly a trailing mirror, my friend. The real kicker is the regime you’re in. Are we bottoming out, or is it just another episode of “Doom and Gloom”? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s hanging out at $86,631, just waiting for someone to ask it how it feels about all this. 🤑

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2025-12-17 14:12