Bitcoin post-halving predictions: ‘Fastest horse’ or 90% fall?

  • Pre-halving events and ETFs stir Bitcoin price speculation.
  • Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente analyze Bitcoin’s price drivers and future prospects

Well, well! We are just a hop, skip, and a jump away from Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2024 halving. But, the unusual nature of the pre-halving and BTC’s price action brings us to a question — Will the fourth halving event take on a different course? 

Execs analysis of Bitcoin 

During a recent episode on the “Unchained” podcast, Arthur Hayes, the CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, the co-founder of Reflexivity Research, explained the unusual price fluctuations of the top cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin ETFs have significantly influenced the market, leading to unprecedented sales and investments in the form of fiat currency, which in turn pushes up crypto prices according to Hayes.

In simple terms, each Bitcoin cycle is unique, but a notable feature of this one is the introduction of Bitcoin derivatives for institutional investment. Consequently, we’re heavily influenced by these investors when it comes to price movements.

The price of Bitcoin is influenced by various intricacies, which involve the Bitcoin halving, broader market trends, human behaviors, and potential inflows resulting from the acceptance of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Furthermore, Clemente provided insights into how Bitcoins exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focusing on spots can influence Bitcoin’s decentralization and price instability.

In the near term, I don’t find the decentralization aspect of Bitcoin to be a major issue for me. I believe the price volatility will gradually decrease as Bitcoin grows larger, more traded, and has greater liquidity.

What’s next for the king coin? 

It’s worth mentioning that the economic strains and influencing elements driving institutional investment towards Bitcoin were emphasized by the speakers as well.

In addition, they provided more details about the story of the collapse of the sovereign bond market, the actions of central banks in creating new money, and the trend of younger generations becoming tech-savvy investors.

In spite of the challenges, Clemente is confident that Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise steadily, following a pattern similar to traditional stock markets. He stated,

Based on my observation, I believe Bitcoin is likely to grow at an exceptional rate among other investments in the next few years. To mitigate potential risks and maximize potential gains, we plan to invest a portion of our funds in it.

Instead, Hayes proposed a lengthy cryptocurrency market cycle offering larger profits, but warned of a possible 85% to 90% decrease in Bitcoin’s value.

In simpler terms, won’t the approaching halving event, combined with market instability and historical trends, continue to cause anxiety for us?

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2024-04-17 11:03