As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience in this wild west of digital assets, I have learned to take every analysis and prediction with a grain of salt. However, Caleb Franzen’s latest blog post has caught my attention, as it presents a compelling argument for a potential Bitcoin breakout.
According to recent analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to regain focus as its price growth aligns more closely with the movement of U.S. stocks.
On October 19th, in his most recent blog entry, Caleb Franzen, innovator behind the financial research platform Cubic Analytics, anticipated a significant Bitcoin price surge.
“Highly effective” BTC price tool demands gains
For Bitcoin to equal its past success relative to U.S. stocks, it must regain its footing since the S&P 500 is consistently hitting new record highs again.
According to Franzen’s perspective, it seems that the future of Bitcoin in comparison to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) may be becoming clearer.
He pointed out that compared to an equal-weighted S&P 500, Bitcoin didn’t set any new all-time highs. In fact, when it reached those highs from 2021, it was rejected and has been consolidating since then. This pattern is shown in the chart he provided, which also includes a regression channel to illustrate the consolidation.
“However… That BTC/RSP is starting to break above of that regression channel.”
Franzen thus saw an option for traders to go short RSP and long BTC next.
Given the current setup, it seems we might revert to the previous zone, which is represented by the color blue,” he explained further.
“To be clear, that blue zone is still valid potential resistance, but it’s also a price target.”
Franklin reinforced his positive viewpoint regarding Bitcoin (BTC/USD) by employing the Williams %R Oscillator, a versatile indicator that measures trend strength across various time periods.
On this particular instance, the 120-day cycle implies there may be more growth ahead, as it has bounced back from its lowest points during a period of overselling in July.
“As we can see, this signal is both rare & highly effective,” he concluded.
In January 2024 and October 2023, similar bottom signals were noticed. Following these instances, the Bitcoin price against the U.S. dollar increased by 48% and a substantial 123% in the next three months respectively.
Given that Bitcoin is now priced as high as it was in July 2024, investors are becoming more optimistic about its future growth, especially considering that stocks are also reaching record highs.
Bitcoin breakout excitement gathers pace
According to CryptoMoon’s latest report, the predicted BTC price suggests reaching a new peak in 2025 on a larger scale, while shorter-term forecasts still indicate a possible upward trend continuing.
Currently hovering around $69,000, the remaining obstacle prevents the price from resuming its exploration phase, an obstacle that has been steadfast since March. This obstacle refers to a resistance level in the market.
The initial trading session has concluded with it ending above a downward trendline that’s been present since, which strengthens the argument for a bullish outlook.
Over the weekend, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital underscored the importance of recent Bitcoin price fluctuations.
He shared with his X followers that a significant milestone was achieved, as Bitcoin closed a daily candle for the first time above the previously resistant red zone, as illustrated in the accompanying diagram.
“Bitcoin will now try to retest the top of this resistance into new support. Generally, Bitcoin just needs to stay above $66400 (black Channel Top) to enjoy a bullish Weekly Close.”
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2024-10-20 17:46