As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets under my belt, I have seen more than a few market cycles come and go. The current Bitcoin (BTC) situation reminds me of the dot-com bubble of 1999, where the hype outweighed the fundamentals. However, unlike that bubble, I believe BTC will bounce back with vigor, but not before 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) will bounce back “above the macro trend,” but only in 2025, a new prediction says.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been keeping a close eye on Keith Alan’s latest insights from Material Indicators. His content on November 4th revealed that the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election could cast a two-month long shadow over Bitcoin price dynamics.
Bitcoin will beat macro trend “regardless”
As U.S. election day approaches, Bitcoin traders brace themselves for potential market swings and unexpected movements. However, certain traders are starting to cast their gaze past the election outcome.
For Alan, a victory by Donald Trump might prompt an immediate response in the Bitcoin/US Dollar market, likely resulting in changes opposite to those that would occur if the Democrats retained control.
He suggested that Bitcoin won’t hit a new all-time high until after the voting results are announced, as part of his four predictions regarding Bitcoin’s short-term price trend.
Alan observed that several potential support levels, such as the mid-cycle peak in April 2021 and the 21-day moving average, were not holding up as expected, along with the price level of $69,000.
This post highlights that Technical Support is drawing attention near the 50-day Moving Average, and there’s also a second line of defense provided by the 21-week Moving Average. However, the high volatility might overpower these technical indicators.
Moving forward, however, Bitcoin may have a longer-term headache as a result of geopolitical flux.
It’s possible that the market won’t show strong performance until the newly elected government has taken office, which won’t happen until mid-January.
Alan stated that we can’t expect a break from the turmoil caused by political tension, worry, confusion, and market fluctuations until January 20th, which is Inauguration Day.
“Regardless of who wins Election2024 , by Q2 2025 Bitcoin will return to it’s trajectory above the macro trend.”
BTC price trendline viewed as downside support
According to the latest updates from CryptoMoon, many investors anticipate that Bitcoin will reach even higher record prices.
Some forecasts even predict a major price discovery event in the coming months, including a trip to $100,000 in early 2025.
Last week, BTC/USD narrowly missed matching its current record set in March this year.
As an analyst, I’d like to emphasize that if we encounter any significant market turbulence or downturn, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to anticipate a potential return to our 50-week moving average and perhaps even the macro trend line. This is a cautionary note based on my analysis of material indicators.
The 50-week SMA currently sits at $59,200, data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
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2024-11-05 10:19