Bitcoin Shock: The Four-Year Cycle Conspiracy?

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There’s a peculiar magic in the way our modern world stumbles into new reckonings, much like the dusty roads of Salinas County. As the high-falutin’ money men—those banks, firms, and even the state—turned a keen eye towards Bitcoin, whispers began to rustle in the wind: is that old four-year cycle, once as sure as the harvest, now a withering relic? Oh, the absurdity of our times! 😜

Imagine, if you will, a curious X account named Bitcoin Archive, tossing a poll as carelessly as one might toss a stone into a dry creek. In mere hours, scores of souls (over 10,000 by the count) cast their fateful votes, with 52% swearing that the cycle’s days are numbered. Yet, in true Steinbeck fashion, this does not spell the end of all things—only that our landscape, like the unpredictable winds across the fields, is changing.

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Understanding the four-year Bitcoin cycles

In the spirit of the great storytellers of old, let us recall that when Satoshi Nakamoto breathed life into Bitcoin, he also engineered a curious dance—one in which the rewards of mining were halved roughly every four years. This “halving,” as it’s called, slashes the bounty of new coins much like a harsh season that withers the fields. Miners, those modern-day prospectors, find their toils twice as hard, compelled to sell their hard-won coins for prices that dare to match their burning ambition. 😏

As if by some natural law, the scarcity of coins spun a tale of demand and supply, etching a cycle into Bitcoin’s very heart. Each four-year turn sees fewer coins emerging from the digital soil, and thus, as if by fate’s caprice, their price ascends like spring flowers after a bitter winter.

The cycle unfolds much like a well-worn path through the orchards. In the 12 to 18 months following a halving, Bitcoin ascends to fresh heights—a bull market that roars in triumphant defiance of the bear’s grip. And just when the mind dares to rest, a bear appears, cooling the fervor of newfound peaks. It is a dance of hope and despair, echoing through years past and present. Though once the even years were the season of halving and decline, with odd years heralding growth by leaps both vast and fanciful, 2021 reminded us all that even the steepest peaks might crumble in the shadow of a bear. 🤔

Yet, tradition is a stubborn mule. Recent times have seen miners hoarding their fruits of labor, choosing instead to keep them close like a miser with his last coin, convinced that higher prices loom on the horizon. A peculiar twist in our ongoing tale!

Can we still rely on the four-year Bitcoin cycle?

The last halving of this fabled cycle arrived in 2024, and by the dawn of 2025, Bitcoin stretched its limbs to a record high of $108,786 on January 20. A glimmer of the old order, some might say. But if the cycle has truly met its demise, we may be on the cusp of something altogether different—a bearish twist in the tale or the prolonging of a bullish saga that even the gods would find bemusing.

In recent months, despite regulations as welcoming as a country fair and adoption rates that would make even the most jaded gambler raise an eyebrow, Bitcoin’s price has danced a jittery jig. Investors find themselves squinting against an uncertain horizon, wondering if this bull market is nothing more than a mirage in a desert of doubt.

Ryan Watkins, a co-founder at Syncracy Capital, stands at the center of this debate, boldly proclaiming that terms like “cycle” and “altcoin season” are as outdated as last season’s boots. He foresees a new era—one where the introduction of Bitcoin exchange trading funds ushers in institutional investors on a proper, legal stage. A modern twist in our old fable, indeed!

Mostly agree with this, with the key difference that Bitcoin and everything else are likely on different timelines.

Imo the asset class is beginning to bifurcate between Bitcoin + stablecoins, which are very much on the plateau of productivity, and everything else which is on…

— Ryan Watkins (@RyanWatkins_) January 16, 2025

Watkins maintains that while Bitcoin’s vast potential glimmers on the horizon, its true embrace by the masses is yet to come. A new epoch of adoption, maturity, and a dash of certainty beckons—a time when governments and institutions will lend their weight to Bitcoin, making its price as steady as a well-tended tractor on a lazy afternoon. 🚜😆

Let us not forget that the four-year cycle was never a gospel truth. Even the most astute market observers knew that the fickle markets could rewrite the rules at any moment. Still, with nearly half the voices in that whimsical poll clinging to the old cycle, perhaps there remains a kernel of truth in this weathered adage.

hell no…..the biggest shakeout in btc history, I survived the bear market of 2014 and this does NOT feel like a bear market, technical bear market yes, but not cryptowinter

— Iggy’s Welt – trusted Flagger🤡 (@Iggy_o7) April 9, 2025

Even as we might label this phase a bull market, the specter of global economic uncertainty hovers like an unwelcome dust storm over a parched field. When the tumult of trade wars finally settles, only then will we know if the four-year cycle can still hold its ground. Should it linger, 2026 may very well be remembered as the year the bear returned to claim its dominion. The future, as ever, remains an open book—a litmus test penned in uncertainty. 😏

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2025-04-10 14:17