Bitcoin technical indicator predicts BTC cycle peak in $174K–$462K range

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As a seasoned crypto investor with over a decade of experience in this wild and volatile market, I find myself both exhilarated and cautiously optimistic about the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price. With my hard-earned savings on the line, every bull run feels like a rollercoaster ride that never seems to end, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

On October 29th, Bitcoin (BTC) reached its all-time high three-day closing price of $72,724, following a 24-hour surge of 8.75%. By surpassing its previous resistance at $71,500, this significant milestone suggests that investors could potentially see a return on investment (ROI) between 145% and 530% within the next 12 months.

Bitcoin’s price could peak in the $175,000–$450,000 zone

As an analyst, I’m observing that Bitcoin appears poised to burst free from a seven-month period of price stabilization. The cryptocurrency market seems primed for a spell of price exploration following the achievement of fresh all-time highs (ATHs) by Bitcoin.

Over the last several weeks, diverse forecasts based on recent studies and data have emerged. Notably, Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests it tends to follow Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically between 1.618 and 2.272. These levels have consistently marked significant BTC price peaks in the past.

According to the graph, every Bitcoin high point since 2013 has been within the Fibonacci range of approximately 1.618 to 2.272. At present, with these conditions, the potential price targets are estimated to be around $173,088 at the lower Fibonacci level (1.618), and a more ambitious target of $458,319 at the higher Fibonacci level (2.272).

Over time, the Bitcoin price has consistently reached a maximum slightly below its previous Fibonacci retracement levels. For instance, in 2013, it peaked slightly above the 2.272 mark, while in 2018 and 2021, the peaks were just under the 2.272 Fib line and the 1.618 level, respectively.

If the trend of “lower returns over a four-year span” persists, it’s possible that the peak value of Bitcoin could dip below $173,000 by either 2025 or 2026.

“Fate of bulls to be decided” at $86,200

As per Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the $86,200 mark represents a crucial threshold for Bitcoin’s bullish supporters, implying that if Bitcoin crosses this level, it could signal a strong upward trend.

Referencing Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Analysis and Risk Evaluation Graph, Adler Jr. pointed out that if Bitcoin hits $86,200, it would approach the dangerously high-risk threshold for the ongoing cycle.

In the period from January 2023 to January 2024, that upper-risk threshold often served as a point where traders who held short-term positions chose to cash out their profits. Additionally, during this timeframe, Bitcoin‘s price briefly reached its highest level before plateauing.

Moving beyond this point sparked a spectacular surge in 2021, a period where the cryptocurrency was being valued based on new findings, as stated by Adler.

“If the price breaks above this point and forms a strong bullish momentum, we’ll finally see what everyone has been waiting for.”

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2024-10-30 20:52