According to seasoned trader and analyst Filbfilb, achieving a price of $130,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) would constitute an impressive outcome in the ongoing bull market.
In a recent chat with CryptoMoon, the co-creator of DecenTrader shares his insights about potential Bitcoin price trends during this particular market cycle.
Trump, trade wars and record Bitcoin dominance
According to CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView data, Bitcoin has regained strength after reaching a two-month low and is currently maintaining a position above the $100,000 mark as of January 17th.
For Filbfilb, promising opportunities are on the horizon – particularly as the new U.S. government administration, led by President-elect Donald Trump, takes office.
Policies favorable towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies might initially boost the market, but it’s important to remember that smooth sailing isn’t guaranteed – discussions about trade wars, for example, could severely impact the growth of risk assets.
In my analysis, I believe that Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar (BTC/USD) is likely to take the front seat. Moreover, it’s possible for Bitcoin to set fresh records in its dominance within the cryptocurrency market, as suggested by Filbfilb.
Regarding CryptoMoon (CT), there’s a significant buzz surrounding recent developments such as the inauguration and potential executive orders. In case these don’t live up to anticipation, what direction might Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies take in the near future?
In the beginning of this year, I expected a rocky start but was hoping for a smoother ride in the latter half of the month, and that’s essentially what has transpired thus far.
During this phase, it’s evident that Bitcoin tends to excel more than high-risk assets when the economy is flourishing and the U.S. dollar remains fairly steady. If President Trump manages to achieve some notable successes soon after his inauguration, Bitcoin might surpass traditional equities in performance.
Concerning the cost of the executive rights contract and its delivery time, it seems that the market has set a fair value for now; however, I don’t believe Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is due to immediate expectations. If this scenario isn’t imminent, there might be a drop, but likely an overreaction, which could present an opportunity.
Recently, you expressed concerns over the performance of MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR). Can you share your thoughts on how you see its trajectory unfolding this year? Do any significant reversals or setbacks concern you in the near future?
The Mastercard (MSTR) situation is a complex one, and their ongoing use of the balance sheet is indeed a daring strategy. However, my previous remarks were focused on whether MSTR could be considered a “pyramid scheme,” which it isn’t by definition, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential risks associated with it.
Currently, the Premium over Net Asset Value (NAV) is approximately 2, similar to periods when Bitcoin hovered between $60,000 and $70,000. At the moment, Mastership’s price is significantly lower than its previous highs.
If the price of Bitcoin exceeds $100,000, MicroStrategy (MSTR) could potentially surge again, with the premium increasing as investors seek returns from Bitcoin. In the short term, I’m not anticipating a significant correction for MSTR unless there is a significant downturn in Bitcoin. However, looking further ahead, it’s possible that MSTR might face difficulties in managing its debt, but this is a topic for another discussion and likely to occur over a longer period of time.
AL: Apart from U.S. government policy decisions, are there any other potential risks associated with a bull market that you foresee becoming relevant?
FF: Ultimately, US policy will dictate the market in one way or another, no matter the input.
I believe there will be a ‘trade war’ or tariffs discussion similar to that seen during Trump’s first term in 2018 at some point on the horizon and this could cause a major correction in the markets.
Has Bitcoin’s bullish momentum slowed down, leading to a roughly 20% decrease in its value? Should we consider this as the start of an “altcoin season”? Does the traditional pattern of Bitcoin leading to larger altcoins and then smaller ones still hold true?
From my perspective as an analyst, if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, I anticipate that its overall dominance in the crypto market could reach new heights during this surge. There may be exceptions, such as the recent spike we’ve seen with XRP, but I believe Bitcoin will once again take the lead should the market continue to climb.
If Bitcoin surpasses $130,000, it could shift the current situation drastically. Many individuals who invested earlier would’ve already seen substantial profits, which might attract a large number of new retail investors to the market.
Question: There are diverse predictions about Bitcoin‘s price in 2025, and even pessimistic views don’t exclude the possibility of reaching the old highs from March. What could be a plausible range (including peak) for the remaining part of this year?
As a researcher examining historical cyclical data, I haven’t found any compelling evidence suggesting that Bitcoin has peaked just yet. While it’s always possible that this time could be different, I believe there is a solid case to be made for Bitcoin potentially reaching my earlier projected target of around $180,000 by early 2023.
Having said that, anything above $130,000 would be a great result for this bull market.
CT: Which indicators are you using to track the bull market this time around?
In my analysis, I primarily focus on the Market Value to Realized Value Z-score, examining how much the market is outperforming returns above cost. Additionally, I rely heavily on my logarithmic model, Predator, which has proven effective throughout various market cycles. Furthermore, I utilize the Pi cycle top indicator and the Coinbase app ranking in my evaluation process.
If many or most of these indications point towards an issue, it’s highly likely that it would be prudent to give it careful consideration.
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2025-01-17 18:40